氯碱日报：供需偏弱格局，PVC走势承压-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - PVC has high supply and inventory pressure, with weak domestic demand and a lack of positive fundamental support, leading to downward pressure on its price. However, it is not advisable to overly pursue short - selling at the current low valuation. Attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [3][4] - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited driving forces. Currently, the resumption of alumina production is not obvious. Future focus should be on downstream replenishment sustainability and the progress of alumina capacity resumption [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of PVC's main contract was 4,745 yuan/ton (- 19), with an East China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+ 9) and a South China basis of - 5 yuan/ton (+ 19) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,640 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,740 yuan/ton (+ 0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price was 2,885 yuan/ton (- 45), the calcium carbide profit was 135 yuan/ton (- 45), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit was - 547 yuan/ton (+ 74), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit was - 505 yuan/ton (+ 11), and the PVC export profit was 5.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory was 38.5 tons (- 0.2), the social PVC inventory was 36.3 tons (- 1.5), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 75.71% (+ 2.52%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 71.71% (- 1.19%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 74.60% (+ 1.49%). The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 54.1 tons (- 6.3) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of SH's main contract was 2,371 yuan/ton (- 85), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 379 yuan/ton (+ 85) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 880 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,420 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The caustic soda profit in Shandong was 1,759 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 1,056.6 yuan/ton (+ 80.8), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 386.78 yuan/ton (+ 63.00), and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,365.55 yuan/ton (+ 0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 39.26 tons (- 0.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.73 tons (- 0.22), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.10% (+ 1.60%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 79.53% (+ 1.43%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 62.68% (- 0.55%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.60% (+ 0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply: There are limited planned maintenance for PVC in the later period. With the support of decent comprehensive chlor - alkali profits, upstream maintenance and production cuts are not obvious. PVC production is at a high level in the same period. Coupled with the expected new production capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure of PVC remains high [3] - Cost: The price of upstream calcium carbide has declined, weakening the cost support for PVC, while the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has recovered [3] - Demand: The terminal real estate market is weak. The operation rate of PVC downstream product enterprises is at a low level in the same period. The operation of PVC pipes, profiles, and films is weakly stable. The downstream market mainly makes rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the spot price fluctuates weakly. The demand side remains weak. Export orders are continuously and stably delivered. The social PVC inventory continues to decline, but the de - stocking rate is slow. The extension policy of India's BIS certification expires at the end of June, which is expected to drag down exports and deliveries to India [3] Caustic Soda - Supply: The spot price of caustic soda is firm. With the support of chlor - alkali profits, most upstream manufacturers maintain high - level operation, and there are few new upstream maintenance. The overall caustic soda operation rate has increased month - on - month. It is expected that new caustic soda production capacity will be put into operation from June to July, so the supply - side pressure of caustic soda remains high [3] - Demand: For the main downstream product, alumina, supported by previous maintenance and supply disruptions at the Guinean ore end, the alumina spot price has been sorted out in a stable and slightly strong manner, and the industry's production profit has significantly recovered. The market's expectation of the resumption of some production capacity has strengthened. The expected increase in alumina operation rate may support the caustic soda market price in the short term, and the inventory - building rhythm of major alumina plants is accelerating. Non - aluminum demand remains weak. The operation rate of downstream terminals such as printing and dyeing and viscose staple fiber has slightly increased, but the overall inventory - building willingness is not strong [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. The high supply and inventory pressure of PVC continue, and domestic demand remains weak. The fundamentals lack positive support, and the PVC price is under pressure. However, at the current low valuation, it is not advisable to overly pursue short - selling. Continued attention should be paid to export - related macro - policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. Currently, the resumption of alumina production is not obvious. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited driving forces. However, the current futures price is deeply discounted, and the downward space is limited. Future focus should be on downstream replenishment sustainability and the progress of alumina capacity resumption [4]