国泰君安期货所长早读-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In May 2025, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3, the first time below the critical point since October 2024, indicating a decline in both supply and demand in the manufacturing sector, with significant drag from external demand, continued contraction in employment, weak prices, and delayed logistics [7][8]. - For caustic soda, there is a strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is bearish on caustic soda profits due to insufficient demand - side drive, but the short - term downside space may be limited under the strong basis pattern [9][11]. - Synthetic rubber has a short - term static valuation with a small rebound at a low level, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is still relatively large [13]. - Rapeseed meal is affected by the weakening of soybean meal spot prices and the market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations. Rapeseed meal futures are expected to remain under pressure following soybean meal futures [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals - Gold and Silver: During the holiday, the Russia - Ukraine issue flared up again. Gold prices rose nearly 3% and silver followed the rebound. The trend intensities of gold and silver are both 2, indicating a bullish outlook [21][25]. - Copper: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 1, showing a relatively strong trend [27][29]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is in a range - bound oscillation, and alumina has a small rebound. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [30][32]. - Zinc: The price is relatively pressured at the upper level. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral trend [33][34]. - Lead: It is operating within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [35][36]. - Tin: It has stopped falling and started to rise. The trend intensity is 1, showing a relatively strong trend [37][40]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel is supported by short - term costs but suppressed by weak expectations. Stainless steel is in a game between negative feedback and production cuts, with steel prices oscillating within a range. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [41][42][47]. - Carbonate Lithium: The ore price dropped rapidly after the holiday, and the lithium price trend remains weak. The trend intensity is - 1, showing a bearish trend [49][51]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is oscillating weakly at the bottom, and polysilicon has an unexpected large increase in warehouse receipts, with the disk having a downward driving force. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1 and - 2 respectively, showing bearish trends [52][54]. - Caustic Soda: There is a strong current situation but weak expectations. Attention should be paid to cost changes. The market is bearish on caustic soda profits, but the short - term downside space may be limited [9][10][11]. - Synthetic Rubber: It has a short - term static valuation with a small rebound at a low level, but the medium - term fundamental pressure is still relatively large [13]. 3.3 Building Materials and Minerals - Iron Ore: The demand expectation is weak, and the price faces downward risks. The trend intensity is - 1, showing a bearish trend [55]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by the macro - sentiment, the weak trend continues. The trend intensities of both are - 1, showing bearish trends [58][59][61]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide: Silicon ferrosilicon is continuously exploring the bottom and oscillating weakly, and manganese silicide's ore end continues to be under pressure and oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of both are - 1, showing bearish trends [62][64]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is in a wide - range oscillation, and coking coal is affected by news and in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensities of both are 0, indicating a neutral trend [65][66][68]. - Steam Coal: It is in a stable stage at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [69][71]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Meal: Affected by the weakening of soybean meal spot prices, it is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations. Rapeseed meal futures are expected to remain under pressure following soybean meal futures [15]. - Palm Oil: Driven by India's tax cut and crude oil, the short - term sentiment is positive [69]. - Soybean Oil: The driving force of the soybean system is not strong, and it is relatively weak among varieties [69]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the rebound of US soybeans and the weakness of rapeseed meal, it may still oscillate [71].