新世纪期货交易提示（2025-6-4）-20250604

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Weakening fundamentals, with potential for price decline. Attention should be paid to the continued decline of hot metal and the market's reaction to tariffs and production cuts [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Overall, they follow the trend of finished products, with the far - month 09 contract of coking coal continuing to weaken and coke facing profit contraction [2]. - Rebar: Price is likely to fall rather than rise, facing pressure from high production and weak demand in the off - season, as well as the impact of increased tariffs [2]. - Glass: Fundamentals lack upward momentum, with demand difficult to recover significantly, and it is in a weak operation [2]. - Stock index futures/options: It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices, as the market's risk - aversion sentiment has eased [4]. - Treasury bonds: It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly, with a narrow - range rebound in the market [4]. - Gold and silver: They are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state, with various factors such as trade policies and demand affecting their prices [4]. - Pulp: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by factors such as cost and demand [6]. - Logs: Expected to be in a volatile state, with improved fundamentals and relatively stable prices [6]. - Oils and fats: Expected to be volatile, affected by policies, production, and consumption seasons [6]. - Meal: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade and supply - demand factors [6]. - Soybean No. 2: Expected to be in a weak and volatile state, affected by trade disputes and supply [6]. - Soybean No. 1: Expected to be in a slightly bearish and volatile state [6]. - Live pigs: Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern, affected by supply and market expectations [8]. - Rubber: Expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term, affected by supply, demand, and policies [8]. - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with Trump's tariff policy intensifying trade tensions and affecting various industries. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and the economic data shows a certain degree of weakness. However, the logistics demand continues to recover [2][4]. - In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand situations. Some are affected by production, consumption seasons, and policies, while others are affected by cost and inventory factors. The market sentiment is also affected by trade policies and geopolitical risks [2][4][6][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: Global shipments have rebounded, but demand has weakened, with iron - water production declining for three consecutive weeks. Port inventories are still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market [2]. - Coking coal and coke: There are rumors of a 20% resource tax on coal exports from Mongolia. Coking coal production is at a high level, and downstream replenishment is weak. Coke supply is in an oversupply situation, and the overall trend follows that of finished products [2]. - Rebar: Trump's tariff increase has weakened market sentiment. Supply is at a high level, while demand is poor, with a significant decline in real - estate investment and a seasonal decline in manufacturing demand [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Glass: The fundamentals are not good, with the industry's start - up rate and production increasing, but demand difficult to recover significantly due to the real - estate adjustment [2]. Financial Futures - Stock index futures/options: The performance of major stock indices has been positive, with some sectors having capital inflows and outflows. The manufacturing PMI has declined, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: They are affected by multiple factors such as currency, finance, and risk - aversion. The original upward - driving logic has not completely reversed, and they are expected to be in a relatively strong and volatile state [4]. Forestry Products - Pulp: The cost support has weakened, and demand has entered the off - season, so it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. - Logs: The fundamentals have improved, with relatively stable prices, and it is expected to be in a volatile state [6]. Oils and Fats and Meals - Oils and fats: Supply is abundant, and it is in the traditional consumption off - season. They are expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as weather and production - sales [6]. - Meal: Affected by trade and supply - demand factors, it is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [6]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The market price has fluctuated, with supply and demand showing different trends. Futures prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [8]. - Rubber: Supply is in a pattern of short - term tightness and long - term looseness, and demand has limited improvement. It is expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state in the short term [8]. Chemical Products - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF: All in a wait - and - see state, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9].