新能源及有色金属日报：下游消费节后无明显复苏，铅价难有靓丽表现-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price strategy is cautiously bearish, and the option strategy is to sell calls [3][4] Core View - Due to the off - season of lead - acid battery consumption, weak downstream stocking willingness, and rising inventory, combined with the relatively tight lead ore resources, the lead price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the future. It is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging, with the selling range above 16,850 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On June 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 22.17 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16375 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16425 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price remained unchanged at 16400 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16450 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at 75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10125 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 10000 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10325 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On June 3, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16650 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 28541 lots, a decrease of 24390 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 55547 lots, an increase of 2217 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16685 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16525 yuan/ton. In the night session, the opening price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 16635 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On June 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 5.0 million tons, an increase of 0.05 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 283150 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]