山金期货黑色板块日报-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel market, with Trump raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, there is greater pressure on steel exports. The policy - driven positive factors have basically been priced in. The real - estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The peak of apparent demand has passed, and with the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation remains unchanged. Technically, prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - For the iron ore market, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further due to the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline is slowing down, and the high proportion of trade - mine inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. The futures price may break downward under the influence of falling steel prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Factors: Trump's tariff increase, real - estate market conditions, demand seasonality, and limited impact of production - cut rumors. The market is changing from strong to weak reality, and prices are expected to continue falling [1]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions [1]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The closing prices of threaded - steel and hot - rolled - coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded - steel futures main - contract closing price is 2,928 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from last week [1]. - Production: The national building - materials steel - mill threaded - steel production is 225.51 tons, down 2.58% from last week, while hot - rolled - coil production is 319.55 tons, up 4.54% [1]. - Inventory: The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased. For instance, the threaded - steel social inventory is 394.59 tons, down 5.25% from last week [1]. - Trading Volume: The national building - materials trading volume (7 - day moving average) is 13.95 tons, down 30.08% from last week [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - Market Factors: Steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is rising seasonally, and port inventory decline is slowing. The futures price may break downward [3]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - Data Summary: - Prices: The settlement price of DCE iron - ore futures main contract is 695.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined [3]. - Shipment: The global iron - ore shipment in the week of May 27 - June 2, 2025, is 3,431.0 tons, up 242.3 tons from the previous week [5]. - Inventory: The port inventory of iron ore is 13,866.58 tons, down 0.87% from last week. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,210.52 tons, down 2.65% [3]. - Shipping and Exchange Rates: BCI freight rates have increased, and the US dollar index has risen 0.55% [3].