光大期货能化商品日报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating with a downward bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [4] - Polyolefins: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to a reduction in crude oil supply, supporting oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are expected to continue to rebound due to short - term demand support and geopolitical disturbances [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ maintaining the production increase rate eases the pressure on oil prices at the cost end. Short - term prices of FU and LU are expected to stabilize and rise. The spread between LU - FU is expected to be stable, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - term anti - arbitrage market of FU07 may continue, but the profit margin may be limited [2]. - For asphalt, although there is support at the bottom in the short - term due to factors such as low production plans and inventory control, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show a pattern of short - term high - level oscillation and medium - term downward pressure [2]. - For polyester, with the supply recovery of TA and the high operating load of the downstream polyester end, under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - For rubber, the fundamentals are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to decline. The price of butadiene rubber is also weak due to weak demand [4]. - For methanol, although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunity [4]. - For polyolefins, the marginal change in demand is not significant, and the market is in the off - season. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the fundamentals are loose in June, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The main contract V2509 has the expectation of a peak season, but the upward space is limited due to weak fundamentals. The price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and the basis and inter - month spread will gradually strengthen [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude oil: On Tuesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The WTI July contract closed up $0.89 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.42% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $1.00 to $65.63 per barrel, a 1.55% increase; the SC2507 closed at 469.0 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% increase. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. EIA data showed that before the driving season, the average retail gasoline price in the US before the Memorial Day weekend was 14% lower than last year, and the gasoline consumption during the Memorial Day weekend increased by 2% compared with the same period last year [1]. - Fuel oil: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.85% at 2,913 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2507 closed up 1.47% at 3,509 yuan per ton. The inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes from Northwest Europe to the Singapore market is expected to increase in June, but the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily tight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Russia is expected to continue to rise, but Iran's exports remain low, and the power generation demand in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa is expected to increase significantly [2]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.22% at 3,482 yuan per ton. In June, the rainy weather in the south restricts the release of terminal demand, but the planned production level of refineries is not high. With the slow release of demand in the north and the low supply in North China, the supply in Shandong is expected to decrease, which provides bottom support for the asphalt price in the short - term. However, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show high - level oscillation in the short - term and downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester: TA509 closed at 4,628 yuan per ton yesterday, down 1.53%; EG2509 closed at 4,306 yuan per ton, down 0.99%. An East China 3 million - ton PTA plant restarted yesterday, and a 340,000 - ton/year MEG plant in East China has restarted. A large domestic polyester bottle - chip manufacturer has recently reduced production, involving nearly 700,000 tons of production capacity, and there are plans for further production reduction. The PX fundamentals are expected to be positive, supporting the PX price and PXN profit repair. Under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed up 45 yuan per ton to 13,450 yuan per ton; the main NR contract closed down 55 yuan per ton to 11,810 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 270 yuan per ton to 10,875 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of rubber are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. The price may continue to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply of butadiene rubber changes little in June, but the downstream and terminal automobile demand weakens significantly, and the price is under pressure [4]. - Methanol: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,275 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1,862.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $254 - 258 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $318 - 323 per ton. Although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support [4]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP was between 6,990 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The demand side changes little, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand. Refineries need to reduce prices to destock. In the off - season of demand, the market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][6]. - Polyvinyl chloride: On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market was weakly adjusted. The market is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in June, with the basis and inter - month spread gradually strengthening [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on June 4, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. - Kazakhstan reaffirmed its willingness to cooperate closely with OPEC and countries participating in coordinated production cuts to ensure the stability of the oil market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][18] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: It includes the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62] - 4.5 Production Profits: It shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production, PP production, and LLDPE production [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [77][78][79]