格林大华期货国债早盘提示-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Treasury bond futures in the macro and finance sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Report's Core View - Treasury bond futures are expected to continue short - term oscillation, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the Treasury bond futures' main contracts opened slightly lower and fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract TL2509 rose 0.03%, while the 10 - year T2509, 5 - year TF2509, and 2 - year TS2509 all fell 0.04% [1] 3.2 Important Information - Open Market: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 830 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [1] - Funding Market: After the month - end, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market on Tuesday declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.41% (previous trading day: 1.48%), and DR007's was 1.55% (previous trading day: 1.66%) [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.14 basis points to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 1.57 basis points to 1.58%, the 10 - year rose 0.52 basis points to 1.68%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 basis points to 1.90% [1] - Economic Data: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 48.3, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024, with an expected value of 50.7 and a previous value of 50.4. The OECD's economic outlook report on June 3rd expected global economic growth rates of 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the March forecast. The 2025 US GDP forecast was lowered from 2.2% to 1.6%, and the 2026 forecast from 1.6% to 1.5%. It was also predicted that the Fed's interest rate would remain unchanged this year. Eurozone's May harmonized CPI's year - on - year preliminary value was 1.9%, the first time in eight months below the ECB's 2% target, and the second time since mid - 2021, slightly lower than the expected 2% and the previous value of 2.2%. The month - on - month preliminary value was 0%, in line with expectations. The core harmonized CPI's year - on - year preliminary value was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of 2.7% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - China's official manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. The production index in May was 50.7%, returning to the expansion range; the new order index was 49.8%, slightly below the boom - bust line. The PMI new export order index in May was 47.5% (previous value: 44.7%), and the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May were conducive to the recovery of export orders to the US. The main raw material purchase price index and the ex - factory price index in May were 46.9% and 44.7% respectively, both 0.1 percentage points lower than in April, indicating continued pressure on industrial product prices. The finished product inventory index in May was 46.5% (previous value: 47.3%), and the continued contraction of the finished product inventory index showed that manufacturing enterprises were cautious about future demand expectations. There was no particularly unexpected information affecting the bond market during the Dragon Boat Festival, and the Treasury bond futures' main contracts fluctuated narrowly on Tuesday, with short - term Treasury bond futures likely to continue oscillating [1][3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [3]