Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For different commodities, there are various investment outlooks, such as being bullish on Chinese equity assets in the long - term, expecting the long - term bull trend of precious metals to continue, and having different views on other commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market conditions [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI dropped, and there are uncertainties in US tariffs. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The "Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data" will be implemented. The domestic economy is stable but the recovery momentum is weak, and there are uncertainties in tariffs. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the US and the world. The long - term bull trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures can be considered [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to decline. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, and the peak demand season is ending. There is a risk of further price decline, but the valuation is low. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the valuation is relatively high. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The short - term decline may continue, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are opportunities in manganese silicon call options and ferrosilicon short - covering [18][19]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. OPEC+ will increase production in July, but the pressure on oil prices is expected to ease. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and a long - position operation on the main crude oil contract can be considered [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose and then fell. The global trade demand is recovering, but the ARA region's inventory is increasing. The cost of crude oil is rising, and a long - position operation on the main fuel oil contract can be considered [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The demand is worried, and the inventory is accumulating. Wait for the price to stabilize and then consider going long [28]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures fell slightly. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is in a bottom - range oscillation [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. The short - term cost is decreasing, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and long - positions can be considered at low prices [33]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread is high. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operations can be considered [36]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost is supported. Interval operations at low prices can be considered [37][38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is increasing, but the inventory is decreasing significantly. It is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost. Long - positions can be considered at low prices [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price is oscillating, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate steadily [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply - demand is relatively loose with regional differences. Pay attention to enterprise operations and liquid chlorine prices [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound briefly due to tariff progress, and pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated lower. The US - China possible call is positive, and the copper tariff is uncertain. A long - position operation on the main Shanghai copper contract can be considered [51][52]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate with downward pressure [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to run weakly [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, long - position opportunities for out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom [56][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by India's tax cut. The domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating. Consider exiting the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by wildfires and tariff negotiations. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated weakly. The Sino - US trade relations are uncertain, and the supply - demand situation is complex. Wait for a pull - back and then go long [64][66]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is low. Consider going long in batches [68][69]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated slightly. The new - year domestic apple production is uncertain. Consider going long after a pull - back [71][72]. Hogs - The hog price is weak. The group - farm slaughter is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. Consider a long - spread operation on the peak - season contract [73][75]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg prices fell. The egg production is increasing, and the profit is low. Consider short - selling after a rebound [76][77]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and temporary observation is recommended [78][80]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose slightly. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market transaction is light [81][83].
西南期货早间评论-20250604
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-06-04 04:58