房地产行业：2025下半年展望：内房止跌回稳，香港反弹可期

Industry Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Neutral" for certain companies and "Buy" for others, indicating a cautious optimism in the market outlook [1][2]. Core Insights - The report identifies signs of stabilization in the Chinese real estate market, with a projected total sales volume of approximately 17 trillion RMB for 2025, which is expected to remain stable compared to 2024 [2][8]. - In Hong Kong, a significant drop in interest rates is anticipated to boost market confidence, with residential prices expected to rise by 3% in the second half of 2025 [2][41]. Summary by Sections Chinese Mainland Real Estate - The first four months of 2025 saw new residential property sales amounting to 27,035 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, indicating a narrowing drop [6][8]. - The average premium rate for residential land in first and second-tier cities has increased, with a 26.5% year-on-year growth in land transfer fees in Q1 2025 [7][8]. - The report forecasts that the residential market will stabilize in 2025, with a sales volume of 8 trillion to 8.5 trillion RMB for new homes [2][8]. - The government is expected to continue policies supporting the market, including the promotion of existing housing sales and adjustments to housing finance policies [27][28]. Hong Kong Real Estate - The report notes that while macroeconomic uncertainties persist, key factors such as population rebound and falling interest rates are likely to stabilize the residential market [2][35]. - The anticipated rental growth for 2025 is around 3%, with small to medium-sized units expected to see price rebounds of 3-5% in the latter half of the year [36][41]. - The report emphasizes the cautious outlook for the office space market, despite a decrease in vacancy rates, due to the upcoming completion of several large projects [2][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a preference for state-owned enterprises or those with state backing in the Chinese mainland real estate sector, followed by leading private enterprises with significant land reserves in first-tier cities [30][31]. - In Hong Kong, the report recommends retail real estate investment trusts and low-debt residential developers as preferred investment options [2][41].