碳酸锂日评：国内碳酸锂6月供给预期偏松，国内碳酸锂社会库存量环比减少-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors mainly lay out short positions when prices rebound, with a view score of -1 [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of domestic lithium carbonate in June is expected to be loose, and the social inventory of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased compared to the previous week. The production, installation, and export volumes of lithium - ion batteries in June are expected to increase month - on - month, and the production and sales volumes of new energy vehicles in June are also expected to increase month - on - month. It is recommended to focus on the support level around 53,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 68,000 [1][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures - On June 3, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts were 59,900 yuan/ton, 59,940 yuan/ton, 59,820 yuan/ton, and 59,820 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 305,161 lots, a decrease of 124,123 lots compared to the previous trading day. The open interest was 259,658 lots, a decrease of 1,351 lots compared to the previous trading day. The inventory remained unchanged at 33,457 tons [1] 3.2 Lithium Spot Prices - On June 3, 2025, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 60,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 58,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1] 3.3 Company News - Anhui Nandu Huajie New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s second - phase project with an annual production capacity of 4GWh large - capacity new - type power energy - storage batteries is installing equipment and is expected to be put into operation in August, with an expected new annual output value of 1.5 billion yuan [2] - Kube Energy's energy storage system R & D and production base project is located in Longhutang Street, Changzhou District, Jiangsu. The new project covers 11 production lines, with an expected annual production capacity of 10GWh after completion in April 2027 [3] - Zhonghe Titanium Dioxide plans to terminate two projects and use the remaining 1.666 billion yuan of raised funds to supplement working capital. Currently, its production layout includes an annual rutile - type titanium dioxide production capacity of 57,000 tons, an annual iron phosphate production capacity of 100,000 tons, an annual phosphate rock production capacity of 300,000 tons, and an annual yellow phosphorus production capacity of 2,700 tons [3] 3.4 Supply - side Situation - Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes 652,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, with the total production capacity reaching 240,000 tons per year, which may lead to a decline in the prices of domestic and imported lithium ores. The production and import volumes of lithium ores in China in June may increase or decrease. The production volume of lithium carbonate in China in June may increase month - on - month, and the supply is expected to be loose [4] 3.5 Demand - side Situation - The monthly average production cost of iron phosphate with different production processes in China is 11,000 - 19,000 yuan/ton, and the production (inventory) volume in June may increase or decrease. The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate with different production processes in China is 24,000 - 11,000 yuan/ton, and the production volume in June may increase month - on - month [5]