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供需偏弱,新能源金属价格维持弱势
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-04 05:08

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate are all "oscillating" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of new energy metals is that supply and demand are weak, and prices will maintain a weak trend. In the short - to - medium term, prices are weak, and cautious participation is advisable. For long - term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1]. - Industrial silicon: During the wet season, supply increases while demand is weak, and silicon prices are under downward pressure [2][5]. - Polycrystalline silicon: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and polycrystalline silicon prices fluctuate widely [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The support of ore prices continues to decline, and lithium prices are under pressure [2][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views Industrial Silicon - Current prices: As of June 3, according to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 8,200 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China is 8,850 yuan/ton [5]. - Inventory situation: According to Baichuan data, the domestic inventory is 420,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; market inventory is 169,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; factory inventory is 251,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% [5]. - Production and export: In May 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 308,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; from January to May, the cumulative production was 1.544 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In April, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,509 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,730 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [5]. - Photovoltaic installation: In April, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 45.2GW, a month - on - month increase of 123.4% and a year - on - year increase of 214.7%; from January to April, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.6% [5]. - Main logic: On the supply side, large northern factories are gradually resuming production, and supply in the northwest is rising. In June, the southwest enters the wet season, and the operating rate in Sichuan has risen first, followed by Yunnan. On the demand side, downstream demand remains weak. Polysilicon factories continue to cut production, and demand for industrial silicon is still weak. The organic silicon industry has a slight recovery, and subsequent demand is expected to remain stable. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry has limited impact. Inventory continues to accumulate, but futures prices have fallen rapidly, and warehouse receipt inventory has decreased [5]. - Outlook: The resumption of production in northwest silicon factories has slowed down, but there is still a possibility of further resumption. In June, production in Sichuan and Yunnan will increase. Under high supply pressure, inventory will continue to accumulate. Silicon prices are expected to oscillate [5]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Price and trade data: According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 36,000 - 38,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 37,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%. In April, China's polycrystalline silicon export volume was about 1,262.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.2%. The import volume was about 954.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,951.7 tons (a decrease of 67.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2,713.9 tons (a decrease of 73.98%) [5]. - Photovoltaic installation: From January to April 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 104.93GW, a year - on - year increase of 74.56%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [5]. - Industry news: The photovoltaic silicon material sector holds a "meeting" monthly to discuss production cuts. Leading silicon material enterprises intend to jointly promote capacity integration but still need to discuss implementation [5]. - Warehouse receipt situation: The latest number of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 1,570 lots, an increase of 1,100 lots compared to the previous value [5]. - Main logic: The registration speed of polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts has accelerated recently, and there is great uncertainty about the resumption of production during the wet season. It is expected that large - scale production capacity will be replaced, and supply pressure will be greatly alleviated. Under the influence of both positive and negative news, price fluctuations have increased. On the supply side, most silicon material factories are still in a loss state, and production is currently at a low level. In April, production was below 100,000 tons, a significant decline compared to the beginning of 2024. It is expected that low production will continue in May 2025. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install period, the prices of downstream photovoltaic products such as components have begun to decline, and there is a risk of weakening demand for polycrystalline silicon in the second half of the year [5][6]. - Outlook: The short - term low production of polycrystalline silicon has improved supply and demand, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and trading data: On June 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.23% to 59,940 yuan; the total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 12,174 lots to 585,875 lots. The spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 60,300 yuan/ton; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan to 58,700 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush decreased by 12 US dollars to 608 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 58,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On that day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 60 tons to 33,397 tons [7]. - Industry news: Bolivia's lithium mining development plan for the Uyuni Salt Flats has suffered a major setback. The local court has suspended two large - scale lithium mining agreements with China and Russia, with a total value of over 2 billion US dollars and a planned annual production capacity of 35,000 tons of lithium carbonate [7]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are still relatively loose, but inventory has marginally improved, and the price difference structure has strengthened. On the supply side, weekly production increased by 487 tons to 16,600 tons. On the demand side, domestic cathode materials maintained growth from January to May but at a slower pace. June is a demand off - season, and demand is expected to be flat compared to the previous month, better than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly by 208 tons in a single week, and warehouse receipt inventory has also decreased recently. Ore prices are still falling, but they have not reached the marginal cost of Australian mines, and no mine production cuts have been seen. In the future, cost support will continue to be tested, and lithium carbonate prices will be further pushed down. With the expectation of weakening demand and increasing supply, social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and prices will be under pressure. In the short term, the monthly spread has strengthened, and warehouse receipts have continuously decreased. Attention should be paid to mine production cut news, and opportunities for short - selling on rebounds or reverse spreads should be monitored [7]. - Outlook: Demand is weak, and supply is at a high level. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7].