有色商品日报-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, up 0.24% to $9,638.5/ton; SHFE copper main contract rose 0.5% to 78,180 yuan/ton. The US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased, easing market concerns about the economy and job market. The Fed may maintain a hawkish stance, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while the domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons to 153,000 tons. With the arrival of the off - season and the end of the phased export rush, downstream and terminal procurement is cautious. The US tariff policy and the 232 investigation may support copper prices. The current copper price is at a directional crossroads, and if it breaks through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it may rise further [1]. - Aluminum: After the holiday, alumina and Shanghai aluminum both trended stronger. AO2509 closed at 3,036 yuan/ton, up 1.27%, and AL2507 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price slightly declined to 3,275 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium widened to 110 yuan/ton. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the ore cost provided short - term support. The electrolytic aluminum demand has both off - season pressure and structural resilience. The price is supported by the low - level destocking at the beginning of the month, and the overall operating center may decline slightly with the cost. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,475/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.25% to 121,860 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons. The nickel ore price was stable. In the stainless - steel industry chain, the raw material nickel - iron trading was sluggish, and the cost still provided support. The supply at home and abroad decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased. However, the overall demand was weak. In the new - energy sector, the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak. Short - term nickel price may rebound after a rapid decline, but it is still in a volatile state and needs new driving factors to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Analyzed from macro, inventory, demand, and policy aspects, pointed out the factors affecting copper prices and the current price trend and resistance range [1]. - Aluminum: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and suggested paying attention to inventory [1][2]. - Nickel: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors, and judged the short - term price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, inventory changes in different exchanges, and import and export indicators [3]. - Lead: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [3]. - Aluminum: Showed price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changes [4]. - Nickel: Offered price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, covering market prices, nickel - ore prices, and inventory changes [4]. - Zinc: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, TC prices, and inventory changes [5]. - Tin: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12] - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Contained charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21] - LME Inventory: Included charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - SHFE Inventory: Contained charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - Social Inventory: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel social inventories from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - Smelting Profit: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46] 3.4 Team Introduction - Exhibition Dapeng: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won many industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [49]. - Wang Heng: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - Zhu Xi: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [50].