光大期货软商品日报-20250604

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.23% to 65.98 cents per pound, and CF509 dropped 0.08% to 13,260 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 6,780 to 539,100 hands. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan. Internationally, macro - factors, Trump's tariff policy, and weak U.S. economic data limit the upside of U.S. cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton lacks continuous upward drive but also has limited negative factors. With weak demand and expected high - yield new cotton, cotton prices face pressure, but the probability of breaking previous lows is very low. It is expected to trade in a slightly weak range in the short term. Monitor macro and weather conditions [2] - Sugar: The Indian National Cooperative Sugar Factories Federation estimates the ending sugar inventory in the 2024/25 season to be about 4.865 million metric tons and the production in the 2025/26 season to reach 35 million tons. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar groups decreased. The expectation of increased supply in India suppresses the futures price, which hit a 4 - and - a - half - year low. With the opening of the import sugar profit window due to the fall in raw sugar, domestic sugar prices are under pressure. A bearish view is maintained. Pay attention to May's production - sales data and future import data [2] Group 3: Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 spread was - 220, up 5; the main - contract basis was 1,293, down 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,445 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,553 yuan per ton, down 16 yuan [3] - Sugar: The 7 - 9 spread was 122, up 7; the main - contract basis was 413, up 16. The Nanning spot price was 6,090 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price was 6,145 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan [3] Group 4: Market Information - Cotton: On June 3, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 11,062, down 40 from the previous day, with 374 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,445 yuan/ton, Henan 14,568 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,570 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,785 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 55.1, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 24.7, up 0.7; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 50.1, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 31.2, up 0.2 [4] - Sugar: On June 3, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6,090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 6,145 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 30,731, down 289 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] Group 5: Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, spread, warehouse receipts, and price index of each commodity, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][14] Group 6: Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, with multiple awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, conducts fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21]