光大期货工业硅日报-20250604

Research Views - After the holiday on June 3, polycrystalline silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 34,360 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.65%, and the open interest decreasing by 5,800 lots to 71,600 lots. The price of SMM polycrystalline silicon N-type silicon material was 36,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material dropped to 36,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 2,140 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2507 closing at 7,070 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.39%, and the open interest decreasing by 8,304 lots to 200,200 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 8,777 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 silicon dropped to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 575 yuan/ton [2]. - The downward adjustment of electricity prices during the wet season in Southwest China has led to the resumption of production, while large manufacturers in Northwest China will not cut production as they did in previous years, and downstream procurement has shrunk significantly. It is expected that industrial silicon will continue to bottom out, with the support from the cash cost line of large manufacturers in Xinjiang and the pressure from high inventory and increasing supply. A defensive short - selling strategy is maintained. The polycrystalline silicon self - discipline meeting in June will be held again. In addition to spontaneous production cuts by enterprises, the industry is expected to clarify an expansion of production limit quotas under the pressure of collapsing demand. In the near - term, due to the constraints of warehouse receipts, the one - sided decline is limited and the volatility increases. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the new electricity price regulations and the dynamics of warehouse receipts [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 7,170 yuan/ton on May 30 to 7,075 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract also decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 7,075 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with the largest decline of 150 yuan/ton for 421 silicon in Tianjin Port. The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 7,750 yuan/ton to 7,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 5 yuan to 575 yuan/ton [3]. - In terms of inventory, the industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 63,253. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, while the inventories in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming Port, and industrial silicon factories decreased, with the total social inventory of industrial silicon decreasing by 11,800 tons to 409,100 tons [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 35,600 yuan/ton on May 30 to 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3, a decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the near - month contract decreased by 1,095 yuan/ton to 36,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices of N - type polycrystalline silicon material, dense material/single - crystal use, and cauliflower material/single - crystal use remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 36,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 900 yuan/ton to 2,140 yuan/ton [3]. - The polycrystalline silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 470. The inventory in Guangzhou Futures Exchange remained unchanged, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons, with the total social inventory of polycrystalline silicon decreasing by 0.1 million tons to 26.8 million tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Products - The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged at 1.03/1.58 yuan/piece. The price of single - crystal M10 battery cells remained unchanged at 0.285 yuan/watt, while the price of single - crystal G12 battery cells decreased by 0.28 yuan/watt [3]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][10] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polycrystalline silicon weekly inventory [20][21][23] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost and profit, and polycrystalline silicon cost and profit [26][28][29] Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [33][34]