氧化铝与电解铝日评：国内铝土矿6月供需预期偏松，国内铝锭和铝棒总库存量环比减少-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to production and policy factors, the supply and demand of domestic bauxite in June are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The price of alumina may fluctuate widely, and the price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously strong. It is recommended that investors wait and see for alumina and try to go long on the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at low prices [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data 1.1 Shanghai Aluminum Futures - The closing price of the active contract was 19,860 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 183,523 lots, up 12,432 lots; the open interest was 191,144 lots, down 4,520 lots; the inventory was 20,894 tons, down 224 tons [2] - The SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20,120 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 130 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] 1.2 Alumina Futures - The closing price was 2,998 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the trading volume was 423,143 lots, down 116,816 lots; the open interest was 311,224 lots, down 9,045 lots; the inventory was 113,487 tons, down 14,714 tons [2] - The basis was 277.52 yuan/ton, down 36.01 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract was 64 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 1.3 London Aluminum - The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,638.5 US dollars/ton, up 23.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 52.31 US dollars/ton, up 0.82 US dollars; the LME aluminum futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 116.75 US dollars/ton, up 11.74 US dollars; the Shanghai - London aluminum price ratio was 8.0389, down 0.08 [2] 2. Industry News 2.1 Alumina - Shanxi and Henan's bauxite mining has not fully resumed, and some enterprises in Guinea may stop production. Guangxi plans a ten - year special inspection. The price of bauxite may rise, and domestic bauxite production and imports in June may decrease [3] - The operating rate of China's alumina production capacity increased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants' alumina decreased. New and renovated alumina production capacities are being built, which may increase the production of alumina [3] 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Some electrolytic aluminum production capacities are expected to be put into production in the future, which may increase the domestic production of electrolytic aluminum in June. The import volume may increase, but the closed import window may limit imports [3] - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in bonded areas increased, and the inventory in major consumption areas decreased. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises was stable overall, with some fluctuations [3] 2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The production and import of scrap aluminum in China may decrease in June due to factors such as competition in overseas scrap aluminum procurement and price differentials. The operating rate of some aluminum alloy production capacities decreased [3] 3. Transaction Strategies - For alumina, it is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 2,000 - 2,000 and the pressure level around 3,300 - 3,500 [3] - For Shanghai aluminum, it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support level around 19,800 - 20,000 and the pressure level around 20,300 - 20,500. For London aluminum, pay attention to the support level around 2,300 - 2,400 and the pressure level around 2,500 - 2,800 [3]