尿素早评：成本坍塌与需求滞后-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recent continuous decline in urea prices is due to cost collapse from falling coal prices and lagging domestic agricultural demand caused by weather [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support urea prices, and the possibility of a significant further decline is low as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has decreased [1] - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, and mid - term strategy is to go long on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures price: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1696 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; UR05 at 1718 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; UR09 at 1761 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [1] - Domestic spot prices: prices in Shanxi, Henan, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Hebei, it rose 0.54% to 1860 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR basis was 152 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; 01 - 05 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, while melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, with Shandong down 1.03% and Jiangsu down 1.80% [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1800 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1803 yuan/ton, a low of 1755 yuan/ton, closed at 1761 yuan/ton, and settled at 1774 yuan/ton, with a position of 231078 lots [1]