招银国际每日投资策略-20250604

Company Analysis - NIO's 1Q25 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue 2% lower than predicted and a gross margin of 7.6%, which is 0.7 percentage points below forecast due to lower vehicle gross margins [2] - The operating loss for 1Q25 was 6.4 billion, which was 1 billion better than expected, primarily due to higher sales and management expenses [2] - The net loss for 1Q25 reached 6.9 billion, widening by 1.3 billion compared to expectations [2] - NIO's 4Q25 breakeven target appears overly optimistic, requiring sales of 150,000-160,000 units and a gross margin of 17%, which is deemed difficult to achieve [6] - Despite the launch of new models, the 2025 sales forecast has been reduced by 30,000 units to 350,000, implying a need for significant sales growth in the latter half of the year [6] - The projected net loss for 2025 is expected to be 16.2 billion [6] - For 2026, even with a sales target of 500,000 units, NIO is still projected to incur a net loss of 9.4 billion [7] Industry Insights - The Chinese stock market saw gains, particularly in healthcare, utilities, and materials sectors, while industrials and telecommunications lagged [5] - The US job openings data indicated economic resilience, boosting market confidence and leading to increases in US stocks, the dollar, and oil prices [5] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate fell to 1.9%, below the ECB's 2% target, supporting further rate cuts [5] - The new pricing mechanism for CGN Mining is significantly above market expectations, alleviating long-standing concerns about pricing uncertainty [8] - The new contract pricing for uranium has increased from $61.78 to$94.22 per pound, which is substantially higher than the current market contract price of $80 [8][9]