有色金属周报（铅）：关注原料支撑有效性-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price, with tight supplies of lead concentrates and waste batteries. The supply of electrolytic lead is increasing steadily, while consumption is in the off - season, which is the biggest negative factor for the lead market. Considering the tight supply of raw materials, it is expected that the lead price will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with an operating range of 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to the effectiveness of raw material support and the impact of macro factors on the lead price [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.50% to 16,400 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 1.42% to 16,620 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LME lead (electronic trading) decreased by 1.50% to 1,964 US dollars/ton [12]. - The domestic lead price basis and the LME lead price basis showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [13][18]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, with no obvious change in the supply - demand situation at the mine end, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of May 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was - 39.6 yuan/ton [25]. - The operating rate of primary lead increased to 69% month - on - month. Some smelters in different regions had maintenance plans or production recovery situations [26][31]. - The weekly output of primary lead smelters that can be delivered showed certain changes in different regions, with a total output of 50,185 tons in the week ending May 30 [33]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials + Poor Demand, Low Operating Rate of Secondary Lead - As of May 30, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton. The profits of large - scale and small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises were - 570 yuan/ton and - 787 yuan/ton respectively [41][46]. - As of May 30, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 146,300 tons, and the finished product inventory was 20,900 tons. Due to losses, smelters held back goods, resulting in inventory accumulation, and the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down [50]. - The operating rate of secondary lead enterprises increased by 3.3 percentage points to 40% month - on - month. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 43,200 tons. However, due to insufficient consumption and tight raw materials, the probability of smelters suspending production and maintenance in the future increased [53]. 3.4 Decline in the Operating Rate of Lead - Acid Batteries - The operating rate of lead - acid batteries decreased by 2.21 percentage points to 79.45% month - on - month. Affected by the off - season consumption and holidays, the operating rate of batteries declined. Currently, the inventory of dealers has decreased, but they still maintain a cautious attitude and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [57]. 3.5 Closure of Import - Export Profit Windows - As of May 30, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,400 yuan/ton, and the import profit was - 642.79 yuan/ton, indicating that the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Accumulation of Social Inventory - As of June 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions was 49,900 tons, an increase in inventory. Due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and month - end inventory checks, downstream purchases were weak, leading to the accumulation of lead ingot social inventory [72]. - As of May 30, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 46,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease, and the LME inventory was 286,200 tons, also showing a decrease [75]. - The monthly supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import and export, consumption, and inventory changes of primary lead and secondary lead from February 2024 to April 2025 [76].