有色金属月报（碳酸锂）：国内新能源汽车下乡及618促销政策，国内碳酸锂社会库存量连降但生产成本下移-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to domestic new - energy vehicle countryside promotion and 618 promotion policies, the domestic lithium carbonate social inventory has been continuously decreasing. However, because of the decreasing domestic lithium carbonate production cost and the loosening supply - demand expectation, the lithium carbonate price may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors mainly conduct range operations, paying attention to the support level around 55,000 - 58,000 and the pressure level around 63,000 - 65,000 [1][4] - The lithium carbonate basis is positive and the monthly spread is positive, and both are basically in a reasonable range. This is due to the promotion of new - energy vehicles in the countryside in China, the initial decline of domestic lithium carbonate social inventory, the decreasing lithium ore price leading to the downward shift of production cost, and the loose supply - demand expectation of domestic lithium carbonate in June. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see the arbitrage opportunities of lithium carbonate basis and monthly spread [5][7] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Supply Side Lithium Ore and Lithium Concentrate - The price of domestic (imported) lithium ore has been oscillating downward (decreasing). Tianqi Lithium's Greenbushes lithium mine's 520,000 - ton wet - process project may be put into production in October 2025, and the total capacity will reach 2.14 million tons/year, which will lead to the oscillating decline (decrease) of the price of domestic (imported) lithium ore. The domestic lithium concentrate production (import) volume in June may increase (decrease) month - on - month [8][10][13] Lithium Carbonate - The production volume of domestic lithium carbonate (industrial and battery - grade) in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month, and the supply expectation is loose. Yabao's Chengdu lithium salt production line will start maintenance before June 2025. Guangdong Haohai Lithium's 6,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate production capacity may be put into production in July 2025, and Zijin Liyuan's 25,000 - ton production capacity for preparing battery - grade lithium carbonate from crude carbon will be completed and put into production in December 2025. The import window is closed, but Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000 - ton lithium chloride production capacity project in the Mariana lithium salt lake in Argentina was officially put into production in February, which may lead to the month - on - month increase of China's lithium carbonate import volume in June [3][29][36] - The cash production cost of producing lithium carbonate from imported lithium spodumene and lithium mica concentrate is about 65,500 and 65,600 yuan/ton respectively, resulting in negative production profit. The quarterly production profit of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica/lithium spodumene/salt lake integration is negative/positive/positive. The daily theoretical delivery and import profit of Chinese lithium carbonate are both negative [21][23][25] - The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of Chinese lithium carbonate has increased (increased) compared with last week, and the social inventory of Chinese lithium carbonate has decreased compared with last week. The daily theoretical delivery profit of Chinese lithium carbonate is negative, which makes the inventory of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate decrease compared with last week [27][30][32] Lithium Hydroxide - The daily cash production cost of Chinese smelting (causticizing) method lithium hydroxide is 58,600 (64,600) yuan/ton, and the production profit is positive (negative). The monthly processing fee from coarse - grained to micron - sized lithium hydroxide has decreased. Hainan Mining's 20,000 - ton lithium hydroxide smelting capacity passed the sampling inspection of the first batch of products in May, and Yahua Group plans to build a 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide production line before the end of 2025. The production volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide (smelting and causticizing methods) in June may decrease (decrease for smelting, increase for causticizing) month - on - month, the inventory (of smelters and downstream) in June may increase (increase for smelters, decrease for downstream) month - on - month, and the export volume in June may increase month - on - month because the daily export profit is negative [38][40][49] Demand Side Downstream Products of Lithium - The monthly average production cost of Chinese iron phosphate is 11,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton. The production volume (inventory) of Chinese iron phosphate in June may increase (decrease) month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of Chinese iron phosphate lithium from different production processes is 32,000 - 41,000 yuan/ton, and the inventory of Chinese iron phosphate lithium factories has decreased compared with last week. The production volume of Chinese iron phosphate lithium (iron manganese phosphate lithium) in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month [55][65][69] - The monthly production cost of producing nickel sulfate from MHP/high - grade nickel matte integration in Indonesia is 114,500/121,800 yuan/ton of nickel, and the production profit is positive. The production (import) volume of Chinese nickel sulfate in June may increase (decrease) month - on - month. The production volume of Chinese cobalt - acid lithium in June may decrease month - on - month, and the production volume of Chinese manganese - acid lithium in June may increase month - on - month [4][72][74] - The monthly production cost of producing ternary precursor from externally purchased raw materials is 83,000 yuan/ton, and the production profit is negative. The production volume of Chinese ternary precursor in June may decrease month - on - month, and the export volume may increase month - on - month. The monthly processing fee of Chinese ternary materials has decreased month - on - month. The monthly average production cost of polycrystalline consumer - type 5 - series ternary materials is 114,300 yuan/ton, and the production profit is negative. The inventory of Chinese ternary material factories has decreased compared with last week, which may lead to the month - on - month increase of the production volume of Chinese ternary materials in June [84][95][98] - The daily production profit of producing solid - state lithium hexafluorophosphate from externally purchased lithium fluoride is negative. The production (export) volume of Chinese lithium hexafluorophosphate in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month [104][106][108] Batteries and New - Energy Vehicles - The weekly production cost of various types of Chinese battery cells has decreased. The production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese energy - storage battery cells in June may increase (all increase) month - on - month, and the production (shipment and inventory) volume of Chinese power battery cells in June may increase (all increase) month - on - month. Zhejiang Jiaxing Aolifu Photovoltaic Technology's 2GWh iron phosphate lithium energy - storage battery manufacturing project in Heilongjiang may be put into production at the end of October 2025 [112][115][117] - The production (sales) volume of Chinese new - energy vehicles in June may increase (both increase) month - on - month [127][129]