星火燎原，走向复苏

Group 1: Market Recovery Insights - Key cities show better-than-expected recovery, with a 3% year-on-year decline in new residential sales in the first four months of 2025, compared to a national average of -2.8%[13] - After the 926 policy, the cumulative decline in the industry has narrowed significantly, indicating a positive trend in the market[6] - The supply-demand situation continues to improve, with sales area exceeding new construction area, completion area, and land acquisition area[16] Group 2: Policy and Economic Factors - The policy cycle is on an upward trend, potentially accelerating recovery, with the possibility of synchronized monetary policy cycles between China and the US[38] - The average loan interest rate for public housing funds in some cities has decreased to around 2.6%, making monthly payments comparable to rental levels, which supports first-time homebuyers[44] - The overall funding retention rate in the industry turned positive in March 2025 after 12 months of decline, indicating improved financial health[17] Group 3: Inventory and Construction Trends - As of April 2025, the monthly available housing inventory in 35 sample cities decreased by 5.5 million square meters from the peak in January 2022, with an inventory clearance cycle of 20.33 months[27] - New construction continues to decline, with total new starts in 2024 approaching levels seen in 2006, indicating a persistent supply shortage[31] - The construction area has decreased from 9.8 billion square meters in December 2021 to 6.2 billion square meters in April 2025, reflecting a significant contraction in the industry[19] Group 4: International Recovery Comparisons - Historical data shows that recovery cycles generally last longer than downturn cycles, with an average recovery period of 9 years compared to 6 years for downturns[73] - Factors such as urbanization rate, M2 growth, population growth, and GDP growth significantly influence the duration of recovery cycles[74] - Current urbanization rate in China is 67%, below the international benchmark of 75%, suggesting potential for further recovery in the real estate market[75]