周度经济观察：经济与资产价格的波动收敛-20250604

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May increased to 49.5, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a moderate recovery in manufacturing activity[4] - The service sector PMI rose slightly to 50.2, reflecting a mild improvement, while the construction PMI fell to 51, down by 0.9 percentage points[4] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic travel reached 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up by 5.9%[7] Market Trends - Since the joint statement on May 12, the stock and bond markets have entered a phase of volatility, with rapid rotation among sectors and a dispersion of market leadership[2] - The overall economic volatility is decreasing, with expectations stabilizing, influenced by the easing of tariffs and the implementation of growth policies[2] - The bond market has also shown relative calm, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining significantly below levels prior to tariff increases[16] Tariff and Trade Developments - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled on May 28 that Trump's tariff policy was illegal, leading to a temporary suspension of tariffs, although the government has appealed this decision[5][23] - The U.S. Trade Representative extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation into China's technology transfer practices until August 31, 2025, indicating ongoing trade negotiations[6] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is showing signs of moderate recovery, with the growth rate of personal disposable income in the U.S. at 5.2%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[20] - The impact of tariffs on consumer prices in the U.S. is still unfolding, with inflation levels needing close monitoring in the coming months[19][22]