煤炭行业点评报告：国内及蒙古焦煤临近成本线，焦煤加速探底或近底部

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stabilization of coal prices and the reduction of inventory at ports in the Bohai Rim, suggesting a favorable outlook for coal allocation [3] - The supply-demand dynamics for coking coal are under pressure, with domestic prices nearing production costs, indicating potential for production cuts if prices decline further [5] - The report highlights that the current market is in a phase of competition between cost support and weakened demand, particularly with increased imports of Mongolian coal [4] Summary by Sections Supply Dynamics - Domestic coking coal production has increased significantly due to a low base in early 2024, with Shanxi province's output rising by approximately 16.6% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025 [8] - As of May 30, 2025, the average daily output of coking coal from 523 sample mines was about 750,700 tons, translating to an estimated total production of around 170 million tons, an increase of approximately 10.2 million tons year-on-year [3][8] Price Trends - Coking coal prices have seen a significant decline, with prices at the port dropping from 1,520 CNY/ton at the end of 2024 to 1,270 CNY/ton by May 30, 2025, a decrease of 16.4% [5] - The futures price for coking coal has also fallen sharply, reaching a new low of 741.5 CNY/ton, down 35.9% from the end of 2024 [5] Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand for steel has shown seasonal improvement post-Spring Festival, but recent trends indicate a decline in iron and steel production as demand fluctuates [4][19] - The apparent demand for major steel products has decreased by 3.3% year-on-year as of May 23, 2025 [18] Inventory Levels - As of the end of May 2025, the inventory of raw coal at 523 sample mines reached 7.662 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 71.6% [19] - The current inventory situation indicates a pattern of upstream accumulation and downstream depletion [4] Competitive Landscape - The price of Mongolian coking coal remains competitive, with the cost of Mongolian coal being approximately 1,210 CNY/ton compared to 1,230 CNY/ton for domestic low-sulfur coking coal [4] - The report suggests that if prices for Mongolian coal continue to decline towards production costs, imports may decrease, potentially supporting domestic coal prices [5]