瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250604

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2240 - 2300 yuan/ton in the short - term [2] - Recently, the output of the resumed production capacity of domestic methanol is more than that of the overhaul and production - reduction capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The shortage of transportation capacity in the northwest production area slows down the enterprise's shipping rhythm, and the inventory of domestic methanol enterprises continues to increase this week. The unloading of foreign vessels basically meets expectations, and the methanol port inventory accumulates as scheduled. The demand side shows that the methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate maintained growth last week [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2270 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45; the 9 - 1 spread is - 60 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4. The main contract's open interest is 835,598 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,852; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 76,728 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 2,600, with a week - on - week increase of 1,000 [2] Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2285 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1865 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 12.5. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 420 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.5; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 260 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3; in Southeast Asia, it is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 257 euros/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 6. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 60 US dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.72 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 37.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4.4; at South China ports, it is 15.2 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.14. The import profit of methanol is - 1.11 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.28. The monthly import volume is 78.77 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 31.47. The inventory of inland enterprises is 249,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 14,700. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 87.19%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 51.04%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.24; dimethyl ether is 10.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.73; acetic acid is 76%, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.07; MTBE is 54.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.11; olefins is 85.19%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.37. The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 662 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 71 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.58; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.63%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.63. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.18%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.52; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.19%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.51 [2] Industry News - As of June 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 37.05 tons, an increase of 1.55 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 4.38%; the pending orders of sample enterprises are 26.22 tons, an increase of 1.23 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 4.92% [2] - As of June 4, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 58.12 tons, an increase of 5.82 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China accumulates, with an increase of 5.13 tons; in South China, it accumulates, with an increase of 0.69 tons [2] - As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants is 85.19%, a week - on - week increase of 1.35% [2]