Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-04 09:04Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - On June 4, 2025, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 768.0, up 7.19%, and the Mongolian No. 5 raw coal in the spot market rose by 10 yuan/ton to 727 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal has marginal improvement signs, with the capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines declining for three consecutive weeks and the cumulative import growth rate decreasing, while the clean coal inventory continues to increase. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On June 4, 2025, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1367.5, up 5.72%, and the second - round price cut in the spot market was implemented. Trump announced to raise the import tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% starting from June 4, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials has marginal improvement signs, and the molten iron output has declined from a high level. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide in this period is 39 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - Coking Coal: The closing price of the JM main contract was 768.00 yuan/ton, up 49.00 yuan; the contract's open interest was 681,464.00 lots, up 1,013.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts was - 29,372.00 lots, down 15,224.00 lots; the spread between the JM1 - 9 contracts was 18.00 yuan/ton, up 1.50 yuan; the number of coking coal warehouse receipts was 200.00, up 200.00 [2]. - Coke: The closing price of the J main contract was 1367.50 yuan/ton, up 68.50 yuan; the contract's open interest was 58,263.00 lots, down 1,060.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 contracts was 1,867.00 lots, down 471.00 lots; the spread between the J1 - 9 contracts was 8.50 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan; the number of coke warehouse receipts was 80.00, down 10.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Coking Coal: The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 727.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the CFR price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 116.50 US dollars/wet ton, down 1.00 US dollar; the price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1,180.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,050.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,050.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 282.00 yuan/ton, down 49.00 yuan [2]. - Coke: The price of Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan second - class metallurgical coke was 1,525.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the J main contract was 152.50 yuan/ton, down 68.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Coking Coal: The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 310.98 million tons, down 5.50 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 222.07 million tons, up 7.33 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 61.55%, down 0.81 percentage points; the raw coal output was 38,930.60 million tons, down 5,127.60 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3,783.00 million tons, down 90.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.80 thousand tons, down 1.80 thousand tons; the inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.76 million tons, up 18.27 million tons; the total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 846.33 million tons, down 19.40 million tons; the inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 786.79 million tons, down 11.96 million tons; the available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.50 days, down 0.20 days; the import volume of coking coal was 889.34 million tons, up 25.97 million tons; the output of coking coal was 4,161.47 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Coke: The inventory of coke at 18 ports was 271.78 million tons, down 4.90 million tons; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 111.38 million tons, up 8.13 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 654.93 million tons, down 5.66 million tons; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.71 days, down 0.18 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 21.00 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.66%, down 0.21 percentage points; the profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 39.00 yuan/ton, down 24.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4,160.00 million tons, up 30.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.89%, up 0.22 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.67%, down 0.63 percentage points; the crude steel output was 8,601.90 million tons, down 682.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition mainly in the form of "price war", adhere to production based on sales, reasonably set annual production targets for enterprises and sales targets for dealers, and not transfer inventory to dealers or force dealers to purchase vehicles to reduce dealer inventory levels [2]. - From January to May 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced more than 60 anti - dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products initiated by foreign countries [2]. - The voting results of the South Korean general election were passed, and President Lee Jae - myung's term officially began [2]. - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the United States and the world, stating that Trump's tariff policy was the main reason for the downgrade. The OECD predicted that the US economic growth rate would drop to 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026 [2].