瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market shows a volatile upward trend, with a decline in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material prices are under pressure, supply-side cost support is weakening, and production cuts and maintenance are increasing. Demand growth is slowing down near the end of the peak consumption season, and inventory remains high. The options market is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct short-selling transactions at high prices with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 61,080 yuan/ton, up 1,140 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is -6,216 hands, down 1,545 hands; the open interest of the main contract is 245,650 hands, down 14,008 hands; the spread between near and far contracts is 0 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 33,461 hands/ton, up 64 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 60,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 58,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is -830 yuan/ton, down 1,190 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 712 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 6,640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,555 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,900 tons, up 4,720 tons; the monthly import volume is 28,335.89 tons, up 10,210.40 tons; the monthly export volume is 734.29 tons, up 514.26 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 53%, up 3 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 118,200 MWh, down 100 MWh; the prices of manganese lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt lithium, and ternary materials remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of ternary materials (523 single-crystal type) and lithium iron phosphate remain unchanged. The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, up 5 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 47%, down 10 percentage points. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,251,000 vehicles, down 26,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,226,000 vehicles, down 11,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 42.74%, up 1.58 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 4,300,000 vehicles, up 1,360,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume is 200,000 vehicles, up 42,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 642,000 vehicles, up 221,000 vehicles. The 20-day average volatility of the underlying is 28.21%, up 1.15 percentage points; the 40-day average volatility is 22.88%, up 0.70 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The total call open interest is 255,727 contracts, up 8,642 contracts; the total put open interest is 100,353 contracts, up 16,301 contracts; the put-call ratio of total open interest is 39.24%, up 5.2248 percentage points; the at-the-money IV implied volatility is 0.29%, up 0.0054 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce issued an initiative against "involutionary" competition. The five departments including the Ministry of Commerce launched the 2025 new energy vehicle campaign in rural areas. China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024. The OECD lowered the US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% (previously 2.2%) and for 2026 to 1.5% (previously 1.6%), and raised the overall inflation forecast for the US this year by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2% [2].