海通国际证券利率债周报-20250604

Core Insights - The report suggests that spot electricity prices may have bottomed out, leading to potential improvements in valuation and performance for the sector [1] - The analysis indicates that the electricity market is undergoing significant changes, particularly in the context of coal-fired power generation and renewable energy integration [3] Group 1: Coal Power - In northern regions, the proportion of renewable energy is higher, making coal power more scarce during peak times, which could lead to price increases [3] - The report anticipates that after three years of decline, the spot electricity price in Gansu will rise for the first time in 2025, surpassing long-term contracts [3] - In Q1 2025, coal power generation in China decreased by 4.7% year-on-year, with major state-owned enterprises experiencing significant drops in electricity output [21][22] Group 2: Hydropower - The report highlights that large hydropower resources are becoming increasingly scarce as most potential sites have been developed, particularly outside Tibet [35] - It is projected that hydropower prices will see a moderate increase during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, driven by further marketization [42] - Major hydropower companies are expected to show stable profit growth, with significant revenue from electricity sales [45] Group 3: Renewable Energy - The report notes that by 2024, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, accounting for 42% of total installed capacity, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4% from 2020 to 2024 [10][57] - The analysis indicates that the new energy policy aims to stabilize electricity prices and control the growth rate of installed capacity, suggesting a potential slowdown in future capacity additions [3] - The report also points out that the profitability of renewable energy is under pressure due to market dynamics, with significant declines in electricity prices observed in Guangdong [61][62]