2025年建筑装饰中期投资策略：战略引领，挖掘区域投资弹性

Group 1 - The report highlights that fixed asset investment growth has slowed down, with manufacturing and real estate under pressure, while infrastructure investment remains relatively stable, supported by public utilities and water conservancy [3][5][10] - Regional investment is expected to gain elasticity with the national strategic layout, particularly in 2025, which is a pivotal year for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with opportunities arising from the transfer of industries to the central and western regions, urban renewal, low-altitude economy, and the "Belt and Road" initiative [3][24][62] - The report indicates that undervalued state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are likely to see valuation recovery, as the market has discounted their long-term cash flow and asset realizability due to concerns over asset quality, despite stable dividend policies [3][24][62] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that investment will be a key focus, with strong fiscal capabilities in major economic provinces driving investment in urban renewal and low-altitude economy, while weaker regions will attract social capital to complement central and local government financing [26][30] - The report notes that the central and western regions are expected to see increased investment opportunities due to policy guidance for industrial transfer, with significant potential in areas like Sichuan, Xinjiang, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region [30][62] - The report identifies specific companies to watch for investment opportunities, including Sichuan Road and Bridge, Xinjiang Communications Construction, and companies involved in urban renewal and low-altitude economy [3][62] Group 3 - The report discusses the low valuation of construction companies, which are primarily asset-backed by accounts receivable, leading to market skepticism about their cash flow and asset realizability [3][68] - It highlights that the construction industry is capital-intensive and relies heavily on financing for balance sheet expansion, which has resulted in a low pricing of assets in the market [68]