Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-04 10:54Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In Yunnan, raw material supply is tight due to weather interference; in Hainan, raw material output is slow to increase due to rainy weather. The decline in spot and futures prices has reduced the enthusiasm of local concentrated latex processing plants to purchase raw materials at high prices, leading to a slight decline in the purchase price of rubber latex. Last week, inventories in Qingdao ports decreased. Overseas arrivals continued to decline, causing a continuous drop in the total inbound volume of Qingdao spot. Tire companies' procurement sentiment improved, driving the total outbound volume to exceed the inbound volume. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies decreased last week, and some companies have short - term maintenance plans, so there is still a possibility of a further decline in the short term. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000, and the nr2507 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,350 [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread was - 835 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,020 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 6 - 7 spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 1,635 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract decreased by 5,828 hands to 177,460 hands; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract decreased by 4,624 hands to 43,672 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber decreased by 4,014 to - 21,318; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber increased by 535 to - 1,670. Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 5,190 tons to 193,300 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 18,851 tons, up 1,109 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 13,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 13,420 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,600 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 255 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 50 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,038 yuan/ton, down 176 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 18 yuan/ton, down 386 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) was 63.87 Thai baht/kg, down 4.06 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 64.82 Thai baht/kg, down 1.18 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 56.5 Thai baht/kg, down 4.75 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, down 0.45 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 208 US dollars/ton, down 66 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was - 3 US dollars/ton, up 109 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 186,800 tons, down 29,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 248,700 tons, down 32,900 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.8%, down 0.16 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 78.25%, up 0.03 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 41.96 days, down 0.9 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 46.22 days, down 0.78 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.08 million pieces, down 610,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.39 million pieces, down 4.27 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 26.93%, down 0.26 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 31.26%, up 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 25.31%, up 0.19 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.31%, up 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From June 2nd to June 8th, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas were mainly in Myanmar and sporadic areas in southern Thailand, with less impact on rubber tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall was at a low level, also having less impact on rubber tapping. As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,600 tons, a slight increase of 0.06% from the previous period. Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.74% to 90,500 tons; general trade inventory increased by 0.38% to 524,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.54 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.08 percentage points. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale basis), down 5% from April and up about 6% from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 435,500 vehicles, a slight increase of about 1% year - on - year [2].