山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core logic is that Trump's trade war is fluctuating, the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising, the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Core Logic: Short - term Trump trade war fluctuations, increased risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest, rising stagflation risk in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - Safe - haven Attribute: Trump plans to raise import steel tariffs to 50% from June 4th. The EU may counter - retaliate if the US does not lower tariffs. The Russia - Ukraine - Istanbul peace talks broke down, and Iran may reject the US nuclear proposal [2]. - Monetary Attribute: The Fed acknowledges the potential simultaneous rise of inflation and unemployment. The US manufacturing industry continues to shrink under the shadow of tariffs. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is under pressure and回调, while the US Treasury yield is oscillating strongly [2]. - Commodity Attribute: The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. Silver - Price Anchor: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - Fund and Inventory Situation: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [9]. - Inflation Data: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related indicators show certain changes, with some indicators decreasing [11]. - Economic Growth Data: GDP shows a decline in both annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate remains stable, and other labor market indicators also have corresponding changes [11]. - Other Data: Data on the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys all show different trends [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range at different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing a general trend of gradually increasing the probability of lower interest rates over time [14].