国投期货农产品日报-20250604

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, trade policies, and inventory levels. Different products have different trends, with some expected to be range - bound, others to decline in the short - term, and some to be affected by potential weather - driven price fluctuations [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category [Soybean (Domestic and Imported)] - Domestic soybeans are oscillating at a low level. A domestic soybean bidding and procurement event will be held tomorrow, and the actual transaction situation should be monitored. In the short - term, the weather in Northeast China is favorable for soybean growth. Imported soybeans will have sufficient supply due to a large amount of Brazilian soybeans arriving in China. The mid - term price of US soybeans will be affected by weather and is expected to be oscillating upward. Domestic soybeans are also entering the planting and growing season, and weather is expected to be the main factor driving price fluctuations [2]. [Soybean and Soybean Meal] - Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating flat with insufficient upward momentum. The domestic spot price of soybean meal has been falling significantly since late April. It is expected that 12 million tons of imported soybeans will arrive in June, 9.5 million tons in July, and 8.5 million tons in August. With more international soybeans arriving, the supply is becoming more abundant. Oil mills are maintaining a high operating rate, and soybean meal inventory is rising from a low level. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. In the short - term, a bearish view is maintained, and the market lacks continuous driving force. Investors should pay attention to the potential upward driving force brought by weather changes from June to August [3]. [Soybean Oil and Palm Oil] - The market focus is on the potential easing of agricultural policies between China and Canada. Soybean oil and palm oil are mainly reducing positions and falling passively following rapeseed oil. The increase in the oil - meal ratio has slowed down. The short - term weather in the US is generally favorable for soybean crops. In the mid - term, overseas soybeans will be driven by weather, and domestic oil - meal futures are expected to fluctuate with US soybean prices. Domestic soybean spot will face the pressure of a large amount of arrivals, and the arrival of 24 - degree palm oil in China will also increase month - on - month. Overseas palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. Overall, soybean and palm oil are expected to maintain a range - bound trend [4]. [Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil] - Rapeseed - related futures are generally falling today. The main contract of rapeseed oil is increasing positions and falling. The focus is on the market's expectation of the easing of Sino - Canadian rapeseed - related trade relations. The key for domestic rapeseed products lies in the marginal change of trade policies. If the Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade relationship eases, the supply of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil will become more abundant. Due to seasonal differences in demand, rapeseed oil may face more significant pressure. The price of Canadian rapeseed is also affected by factors such as the US - Canada rapeseed oil biodiesel policy and new - crop area weather, and its price center is expected to rise slowly. In general, domestic rapeseed futures prices are under short - term pressure [6]. [Corn] - Corn futures are rebounding with position reduction following the overall commodity market. The spot price of corn in Northeast China is generally stable. The number of trucks at Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning has increased slightly. With the new wheat harvest, the price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, and some feed enterprises in high - priced corn areas are gradually substituting. The overall demand is weak, the receiving capacity of deep - processing enterprises is weakening, and the operating rate is decreasing. Feed enterprises have rigid demand but are highly cautious. After the transfer of domestic grain ownership, the market's circulating grain sources are still concentrated in the trading sector. With the listing of new wheat, more corn will be put into the market. It is recommended that investors be cautious about going long, and the market is expected to be oscillating weakly [7]. [Pork] - Pork futures are oscillating weakly. The spot price of pork is generally falling across the country. As the number of newborn piglets continues to recover, the overall supply of pork will increase in the future. Group pig - raising enterprises need to reduce the weight of pigs for sale, and the future sales rhythm is expected to accelerate, further increasing the supply pressure. In the short - term, the spot price still has room to fall. In the mid - term, the policy aims to stabilize pork prices, and measures such as reducing pig weight, reducing secondary fattening, and stabilizing sow production capacity will reduce the long - term supply pressure. It is necessary to observe whether group enterprises will take actions to reduce pig weight [8]. [Eggs] - The main contract of egg futures has reached a new low today, and the near - month contract is performing weakly. The plum - rain season is having a negative impact on the near - month contract, while the spot price of eggs is stable today. The inventory of laying hens in production continued to increase in May, and the chicks replenished earlier are still in the production - capacity release stage. The egg - laying chicken farming industry has entered the loss zone, and the number of old hens being culled has increased. However, there is no panic - selling situation yet. In June, the plum - rain season will start in the South, and the seasonal off - peak demand period is coming. At the same time, due to the large - scale chick replenishment in the past, the production capacity is still being released. It is expected that the egg price still has a risk of further decline. Attention should be paid to the culling of old hens, weather factors, and feed prices [9].