黑色产业数据每日监测-20250604

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, the black - series commodity futures rose as a whole. The double - coking futures rebounded sharply after significant declines, with coking coal rising over 7%. However, the market's core contradiction lies in the dual pressures of weakened off - season demand and cost collapse, and the fundamentals of double - coking are difficult to improve in the short term. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom, and previous short positions at low levels should exit and wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - The black - series commodity futures rose overall. The rebar closed at 2974 yuan/ton, up 1.57%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3097 yuan/ton, up 1.61%; the iron ore closed at 704.5 yuan/ton; the double - coking futures rebounded sharply, with coking coal rising over 7% [1] Market Analysis - The double - coking futures hit a nearly 9 - year low. With the intensification of capital game sentiment and the expected reduction in Mongolia's exports, bulls increased positions last night, and short - covering this afternoon further pushed up the prices. The main contract of coking coal once soared to 772.5 points, and coke reached 1375 points, driving up related industrial products. The coking coal 2509 contract finally rose over 7%, and the trading volume increased by 813,000 lots to 1.429 million lots, a record high. The main logic of coal bears is the difficult - to - ease pattern of high supply and weak demand. Currently in the off - season of steel demand, steel demand is hard to improve significantly, reducing the demand for raw material procurement. Coke sales pressure is increasing, and there is an expectation of a third price cut. The coking coal market has poor purchasing sentiment, and coal mines face sales and inventory pressure [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a short - term shock approach and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a short - term high - level consolidation approach and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Double - coking: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]