蛋白数据日报-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the soybean meal is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to policy and weather changes. The easing expectation of China - Canada trade policy led to a sharp decline in rapeseed meal, and soybean meal followed suit. The short - term abundant rainfall in US soybean producing areas is beneficial to soybean growth. As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal inventory continued to increase but is still at a low level. With a significant increase in开机压榨, soybean meal is expected to accumulate inventory at an accelerated pace in June [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis (Zhangjiagang): Dalian was - 15 with a change of - 27; Tianjin was - 55 with a change of - 37; etc. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 35 with a change of 3 [4]. - Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis: In Guangdong, it was - 2557 with a change of - 2420 [4]. 3.2 Spread Data - M9 - 1: It was - 45 with a change of - 4; RM9 - 1 was 1200 with a change of 244 [5]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: The spot spread in Guangdong was 2840, and the futures spread (main contract) was 378 with a change of 47 [5]. 3.3 Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The purchase progress for June is 94.4%, July is 80.6%, and August is 33.8%. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth [5][6]. - Demand: From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September; the poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions have increased with better提货 [6]. - Inventory: As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal inventory continued to increase but is still at a low level. With a significant increase in开机压榨, soybean meal is expected to accumulate inventory at an accelerated pace in June [6].