钢材6月报：需求预期有限，成本支撑下移，钢价弱势震荡-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand expectation for steel products is weak, the cost - side support is shifting down, and the short - term macro - policy expectation is limited. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate weakly in June [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy - Core Logic: In May, China's manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line; the Fed's pace of interest rate cuts slowed down, and Trump increased the steel import tariff to 50%, which had limited impact on China's steel exports. On the fundamental side, in terms of supply, due to the profit margins of steel mills, the hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased last week. On the demand side, as the south entered the rainy season, the demand continued to be weak; the profit of hot - rolled coils was less than that of rebar, and the demand change needed to be observed after the tariff policy eased. In terms of inventory, the factory and social inventories continued to be destocked, and suppliers' willingness to take delivery was weak. Coke still had a downward adjustment expectation, and its support for the cost of finished products should be continuously monitored [13]. - Spot and Futures: In May, the spot price of steel products showed a fluctuating downward trend. For futures, the closing price of the rebar 10 - contract on May 30 was 2,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 4.36% compared with the end of April. The basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 128 yuan/ton or 4.00% compared with the end of April. The basis was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. In May, the open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the open interest was negatively correlated with the futures price. The futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed from Contango to Back structure [13]. - Spread: As of May 30, the rebar - iron ore spread (main contract) was 2,259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.22, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the end of April. The hot - rolled coil - rebar spread (10 - contract) was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar spread in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [13]. - Supply: In May, steel mills had strong production enthusiasm, the hot metal cost decreased, and the output remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day. The hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises in May remained above 2.4 million tons per day, and the blast furnace operating rate remained above 80%. The rebar output in May was about 2.25 million tons per week, a decrease compared with April. The hot - rolled coil output fluctuated in May, with a minimum of 3.06 million tons per week and a maximum of 3.2 million tons per week. As of May 30, the含税 cost of hot metal in Hebei was 2,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month [13]. - Demand: The demand for rebar in the housing construction sector was limited, and the infrastructure sector provided some support; the demand for coils was weak. In May, the apparent demand for rebar decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. There was a small increase in the apparent demand for rebar before the May Day holiday due to inventory replenishment, but the demand was average after the holiday. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils in May fluctuated around 3.2 million tons per week, basically the same as in previous years. The profitability ratio of 247 steel enterprises in May was close to 60%, and there was still a high profit margin in steel production. The cement delivery volume in May fluctuated around 3.3 - 3.6 million tons per week, at a low level compared with the same period last year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was around 1.9 million tons per week, basically the same as last year. In May, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom - bust line [13]. - Inventory: Rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to be destocked, and the inventory pressure was small. As of the week of May 30, the factory inventory of rebar was 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 72,700 tons compared with the end of April; the social inventory was 3.9459 million tons, a decrease of 1.1401 million tons compared with the end of April. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils was 750,200 tons, a decrease of 98,100 tons compared with the end of April; the social inventory was 2.5779 million tons, a decrease of 250,700 tons compared with the end of April [13]. - Strategy: It is expected that steel products will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend. The range of the rebar 10 - contract is [2,900 - 3,050], and the range of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract is [3,050 - 3,200]. Be cautious about chasing high prices [13]. 3.2 Macro Level - International news: Trump increased tariffs on steel, but China's steel exports to the US were low, so the overall impact was limited; the Fed was more cautious about interest rate cuts, and the pace might slow down. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased to the highest level since November 2021 [15][16]. - Domestic news: In May, both the manufacturing PMI indices of the National Bureau of Statistics and Caixin were below the boom - bust line, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing prosperity. The local bond issuance rhythm accelerated this year, but some funds were used for debt resolution and storage. Overall, infrastructure provided some support, but the increment was limited [15][16]. 3.3 Spot and Basis - Steel Price Trend: In May, the spot price of steel products showed a fluctuating downward trend. After inventory replenishment before the May Day holiday, the steel price stabilized. After the news of the substantial progress in the China - US talks on the 12th was announced, the market sentiment warmed up. The price of rebar in Shanghai reached a maximum of 3,250 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coils rose to 3,320 yuan/ton. However, limited by the weak downstream demand for steel, the price of finished products continued to fall. In terms of rebar, the price in the southern region decreased significantly due to the rainy season; the decline of hot - rolled coils was smaller than that of rebar, and the downstream demand was relatively strong [18]. - Rebar Futures: The closing price of the rebar 10 - contract on May 30 was 2,961 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton or 4.36% compared with the end of April. After the May Day holiday, the futures market showed a weak and fluctuating trend. The central bank's small - scale interest rate cut on May 7 had limited stimulus to the market. After the substantial progress in the China - US talks on May 12, the subsequent tariff policy stimulated the market to warm up, and the futures price continued to rise until the 15th, but did not exceed 3,140 yuan/ton. Then the price continued to decline, and the closing price on the 27th fell below 3,000 yuan/ton. Although the rebar inventory remained at a low level, the price continued to fall due to the weak terminal housing construction and limited infrastructure growth. At the end of the month, the basis was 159 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [20]. - Hot - Rolled Coil Futures: As of May 30, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 128 yuan/ton or 4.00% compared with the end of April. The trend of hot - rolled coil futures in May was similar to that of rebar, showing a "first rise and then fall" trend. Due to the easing of the tariff policy, the closing price reached a monthly high of 3,267 yuan/ton on the 14th, and then the price continued to fall. The difference in the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils from rebar was that the downstream demand was relatively strong. The "Two New" policies stimulated the demand for coils in equipment, home appliances, etc. However, under the previous "rush to export" situation, the order volume support weakened, and the cold - rolled coil had been in a loss for a long time. The subsequent demand for coils needed to be observed. The spot price of hot - rolled coils was more stable than the futures price, and the basis of hot - rolled coils strengthened in May. At the end of May, the basis of hot - rolled coils was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 58 yuan/ton compared with the end of April [31]. 3.4 Spread - Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio: As of May 30, the rebar - iron ore difference (main contract) was 2,259 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.22, a decrease of 0.18 compared with the end of April. In May, the decline of the main contract of iron ore was 0.21%, so the rebar - iron ore ratio decreased slightly. From the fundamental perspective, the hot metal output in May remained above 2.4 million tons per week, so the demand for iron ore was not weak. In terms of inventory, steel mills maintained low inventory and mainly purchased on demand; due to the high hot metal output, the port inventory continued to be slightly destocked, and the overall inventory pressure was small. Overall, the fundamentals of iron ore in the black sector were stronger than those of steel and coal. Currently, the rebar - iron ore ratio was at a low level in the same period of previous years, and there was still a profit margin for steel mills. The arbitrage opportunity of the rebar - iron ore ratio needed to be observed [44]. - Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar Spread: As of May 30, the hot - rolled coil - rebar difference (10 - contract) was 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton compared with the end of April; the spot hot - rolled coil - rebar difference in Shanghai was 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared with the end of April. In May, the fluctuation of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was limited, mainly because the demand for finished products was weak. In the building materials sector, due to the rainy season in the south, the investment in housing construction continued to decline, and the infrastructure increment was limited, so the demand for building materials was still weak. In the coil sector, the demand was limited after the previous "rush to export". From the manufacturing PMI index, the new order index was below 50% for two consecutive months, and the downstream replenishment willingness was limited. Currently, the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was at an average level, and the arbitrage opportunity was limited. It was recommended to wait and see [47]. 3.5 Supply - Overall Steel Output: In May, the weekly output of the five major steel products was above 8.6 million tons, a decrease compared with the same period last year. It was expected that some hot metal flowed to products other than the five major steel products. Due to Vietnam's anti - dumping on China's hot - rolled coil exports, the export of steel billets and bars was strong, and some hot metal flowed to the steel billet direction [51][52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Output: The rebar output in May was about 2.25 million tons per week, a decrease compared with April and a slight year - on - year decrease. The hot - rolled coil output fluctuated in May, with a minimum of 3.06 million tons per week and a maximum of 3.2 million tons per week [53]. - Regional Rebar Output: In May, the rebar output in the East China region gradually decreased. As of the last week of May, the rebar output was 986,700 tons, a decrease of 65,100 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The weekly output in the South region continued to decline, and the output in the last week of May was 759,400 tons, a decrease of 56,700 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The rebar output in the North China region reached a peak and then decreased. The output in the fourth week of May was 530,600 tons, at a high level, but the output in the last week of May was 509,000 tons [58]. - Long - and Short - Flow Rebar Output: The long - flow rebar output remained basically the same, and the short - flow output decreased. Due to the existing orders of steel mills and the decrease in the cost of furnace materials, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar remained high, and the long - flow output remained at a high level. However, in the electric furnace sector, due to the continuous weakening of the finished product price and the relatively stable scrap steel price, the profit of electric furnaces in the East China region continued to decline, and there was a small loss in valley - electricity production at the end of the month, resulting in a decrease in electric furnace output [62]. - Hot Metal Output and Blast Furnace Operation: The hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises remained at a high level of 2.4 million tons per day. As of the week of May 30, the daily average hot metal output was 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 35,100 tons per day compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of 60,800 tons per day compared with the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 83.87%, a decrease of 0.46% compared with the beginning of the month. In the week of May 30, 4 blast furnaces were restarted, and 2 were under maintenance [65]. - Electric Furnace Operation and Iron - Scrap Difference: The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces increased. The scrap steel consumption this week was 254,500 tons, an increase of 72,100 tons per week compared with the beginning of the month, but a decrease compared with the previous week. The iron - scrap difference continued to be negative. As of May 30, the含税 cost of hot metal in Hebei was 2,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month; the iron - scrap difference at the end of May was - 18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month [67][68]. 3.6 Demand - Building Materials and Hot - Rolled Coil Demand: In May, the apparent demand for rebar decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. There was a small increase in the apparent demand for rebar before the May Day holiday due to inventory replenishment, but the demand was average after the holiday. The real estate investment and sales data were still weak. Although the infrastructure bond issuance speed was fast, most of the funds were used for debt resolution, so the increment in steel demand was limited. Due to the rainy season in the south, the demand for building materials was still weak. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils in May fluctuated around 3.2 million tons per week, basically the same as in previous years. The downstream demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively strong due to the continuous subsidy of the "Two New" policies, the increase in shipbuilding orders, but the increase in cold - rolled coil demand was limited. Currently, with the easing of the tariff policy, the demand for hot - rolled coils needed to be observed [72]. - Steel Mill Profitability: The profitability ratio of 247 steel enterprises in May was close to 60%, and there was still a high profit margin in steel production. Steel mills controlled the production rhythm, with extremely low finished product inventory to ease the supply - demand contradiction in the case of expected weak demand, and mainly purchased raw materials on demand, so it was difficult for the prices of iron ore and coal to rise [75]. - Profit of Different Steel Products: The profit of blast furnace - produced rebar was relatively high in May. As of May 30, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar was 90 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month. In May, the profit of blast furnace - produced rebar remained around 100 yuan/ton. The decline of rebar and steel billet prices this month was about 100 yuan/ton, and the price difference between them remained at about 300 yuan/ton. The valley - electricity profit in May