原油再度反弹测试压力，能化同样普遍反弹，但目前仍是反弹非反转看待

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil rebounded again to test the pressure, and the energy and chemical sector generally rebounded, but it is still regarded as a rebound rather than a reversal before breaking through the pressure [1]. - The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached, and OPEC+ production increase remains a long - term constraint on oil prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In terms of supply and demand, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations. Kazakhstan refused to cut production, and the production cut implementation rate was low. Canada's oil sands production was affected by wildfires. Geopolitically, the Russia - Ukraine situation had limited impact on oil. The US made concessions on the Iran nuclear deal, and it is likely to be reached [2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 468 today but did not effectively break through. The 07 - contract short position is held, and the passive stop - profit reference is 470 [2]. (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The port inventory of pure benzene reached a 5 - year high, and the supply was abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory increased, supply was high, and demand did not improve, so it is bearish in the medium term [4]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was regarded as a position - reducing rebound today, not a trend reversal. The short - term pressure is at 7270. Short positions are continued to be held [7]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Domestic rubber inventory increased seasonally. Supply in Southeast Asia was expected to increase, and tire inventory was high, so it is bearish [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails to break through the pressure at 14000 [8]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. The supply of butadiene is expected to increase, and tire inventory pressure restricts demand [11]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 11470 [11]. (5) PX - Logic: PX device maintenance recovery was slow, downstream PTA start - up declined, and the cost of crude oil had downward pressure [15]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 6735 [15]. (6) PTA - Logic: The expected "export rush" did not occur, but short - term supply - demand was still strong due to device maintenance. The cost of crude oil had downward pressure [17]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today with a small rebound at the end. Look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends. The short - term pressure is at 4800 [17]. (7) PP - Logic: It entered the off - season, demand was weak, and new production capacity was expected. It may follow the crude oil price in the short term [22]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It was a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 6980. Short positions are held [22]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Domestic device start - up was high, downstream olefin demand was weak, and overseas imports were expected to increase, so the disk was under pressure [24]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. The short - term pressure is at 2255. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 2255 [24]. (9) PVC - Logic: Device maintenance was expected to end, and demand was weak due to the real - estate downturn and the off - season [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without a bottoming signal. Look for short - selling opportunities at the reversal pattern near the short - term pressure of 4980 [28]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Supply is expected to increase after device recovery, and short - term polyester demand is okay, with not obvious supply - demand contradictions [29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level short - term downward structure may end. Short positions are stopped at profit [29][31]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Supply decreased due to new maintenance, demand was weak after the off - season of agricultural films, and inventory pressure increased [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. It oscillated with a position - reducing rebound today. The short - term pressure is at 7120. Short positions are held with a stop - profit at 7120 [32].