国投期货软商品日报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market situation of various soft commodities is complex, with different influencing factors for each. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, while for some, there are specific trading opportunities such as the potential for pulp to go long on significant dips and the possibility of a rebound in rubber [2][3][6][7] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with overall commodity rebound in the afternoon. Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable and slightly stronger. Pure - cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, and market confidence was insufficient. Downstream startup declined slowly, and finished - product inventory increased. Cotton spot prices were firm, and high - quality resources decreased, leading to an expected tight inventory. The Sino - US negotiation was not smooth. US cotton planting progress was slow, with a planting rate of 66% as of June 1, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The focus of the international market is on Brazilian sugar production, with a relatively bearish supply expectation. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Thailand in the third quarter is beneficial for sugarcane growth. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Due to the continuous decline of US sugar, the sugar import profit rebounded, and the import volume is expected to increase. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, which was beneficial for prices, and the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly. However, the downward trend of US sugar limited the upside of Zhengzhou sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. In Shandong, market sales were slow, and merchants were cautious in purchasing. In Shaanxi, there was little remaining inventory in cold storage, mainly in northern Shaanxi. Cold - storage owners were more willing to sell, and transactions increased slightly. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. The western production areas were affected by high temperatures and windy weather during the flowering period, which may affect fruit - setting rate and quality. However, the overall flower quantity was sufficient, and there were different estimates of the output. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Rubber (RU&NR&BR) fluctuated strongly today. The domestic new - energy vehicle countryside campaign improved market sentiment. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the external butadiene export price was stable. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period, and major domestic and foreign production areas were fully tapped. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance or reduced load, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate rebounded slightly. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded slightly. Tire inventory decreased, and some tire enterprises had holidays during the Dragon Boat Festival. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao dropped to 610,000 tons, and the domestic butadiene port inventory increased slightly to 285,000 tons. The downstream demand weakened, natural rubber supply increased, synthetic rubber supply decreased, spot inventory increased, cost support strengthened, and there were favorable policies. The strategy is to bet on a rebound after over - selling [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly today. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Hebei U - needle and B - needle was 5,320 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was 4,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.161 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and pulp demand was still weak. The import volume may decline. Pulp valuation was low, and there was strong support near the previous low. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. Regarding supply, the external price of radiata pine continued to decline, and the production willingness of external suppliers increased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume of radiata pine in June will be low. In terms of demand, the daily average outbound volume of ports remained above 60,000 cubic meters after entering the off - season, showing relatively good demand. As of May 30, the total national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.79 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. The national log inventory continued to be destocked. The radiata pine log inventory also started to be destocked last week, reducing inventory pressure. Overall, due to poor profits, the shipping volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, which is beneficial for the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]