焦煤：反弹还是反转？

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Coking Coal: Rebound or Reversal?" [2] - Research Institute: Guotou Futures Research Institute [3] - Analyst: Cao Ying, Chief Analyst of Ferrous Metals [3] - Date: June 4, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of coking coal has not undergone a fundamental reversal, facing concerns about downstream production cuts, rejection of restocking at all links, and an oversupply situation at the production and import ends, which is continuously verified by the inventory accumulation trend. However, there are some marginal changes, with the market most concerned about the subsequent impact of the dismissal of the Mongolian Prime Minister [6]. - There is a reduction in domestic coking coal supply. Some private mines have made small - scale production cuts, and during the safety production month in June, state - owned large mines have some top - bin production cuts, and some mines have been shut down for rectification due to accidents [9]. - The strong momentum of export growth has weakened [12]. - Thermal coal is about to enter the peak demand season. The port price of 5500K thermal coal has been weakly stable at around 619 yuan/ton recently, with a year - end decline of 150 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decline of 260 yuan/ton. The arrival of the thermal coal consumption peak season may support the valuation of some blending coking coal [13]. Group 3: Data and Trends - National coal - coke total inventory estimation shows data for 2023, 2024, and 2025, with the specific inventory values presented in the graph [5]. - The daily production data of 88 sample coking coal mines' raw coal, the combined production of raw coal and clean coal of 88 sample coking coal mines, and the daily coke production of national independent coking enterprises from 2022 - 2025 are presented in the graph [10]. - The cross - border coking coal/thermal coal price ratio and the daily consumption of key power plants from 2023 - 2025 are presented in the graph [14]. - The year - on - year growth rate of major real estate indicators and the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities are presented in the graph [8]. - The production growth rate of major steel products is presented in the graph [12].