6月社服行业投资策略：板块整体平稳，把握强平台与强品牌的结构性机会

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the stability of the social service sector while highlighting structural opportunities in strong platforms and brands [1][3] - The investment rating is maintained at "outperform the market" [2] Market Review - In May, the A-share social service sector underperformed the benchmark by 3.6 percentage points, while leading companies in the travel chain sector in Hong Kong and the US reached new highs after earnings reports [3][4] - The overall performance of the A-share social service sector was volatile, with some undervalued companies showing resilience [9] Platform vs. Brand Dynamics - The hotel industry is experiencing oversupply, which enhances the relative advantages of platforms over brands. The expected growth rate for hotel supply is projected to remain between 5-10% until 2025 [3][14] - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) are benefiting from resilient leisure tourism and increased online penetration, leading to double-digit revenue growth in Q1 [3][12] Brand Performance - The operational efficiency of leading hotel brands is increasingly differentiated during challenging periods, with major players enhancing shareholder returns [3][26] - Companies like Atour and Huazhu are expanding their market share rapidly, leveraging their central reservation capabilities [3][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in companies such as Tongcheng Travel, Ctrip Group-S, Meituan-W, and Atour, among others, based on the current economic environment and market trends [3][12] Financial Performance Overview - The financial performance of leading companies in the hotel and OTA sectors shows a divergence, with some brands experiencing significant growth while others face challenges [11][12] - For instance, Atour reported a 55.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for 2024, while Huazhu's revenue growth was more modest at 9.2% [11] Trends in Hotel Supply and Demand - The hotel supply is expected to grow due to favorable policies and declining rental costs, attracting diverse investors [14][20] - The demand for hotels is driven by resilient leisure travel, although business travel remains cyclical and is still under observation for recovery [20][22] Shareholder Returns - Leading companies are increasingly focusing on shareholder returns, with Atour and Huazhu announcing significant buyback and dividend plans [39][40] - The report highlights that overseas hotel leaders typically offer shareholder returns around 5%, indicating a trend towards enhancing shareholder value in the domestic market as well [39][40]