ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-06-04 12:39Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The correlation between regional economic conditions and bank valuations is increasing, with banks focusing on serving the local real economy [5] - Shandong's strategic position is highlighted by national-level initiatives such as the new and old kinetic energy conversion pilot zone, driving strong infrastructure and industrial momentum [5] - The dual task of upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors in Shandong is expected to sustain strong financial demand, with projected credit growth of 8%-11% in 2025 [5] - The regional risk situation is manageable, with city investment risks concentrated in specific counties and a significant improvement in the credit environment [5] - Recommended focus on quality banks within the province, such as Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank, which are maintaining high credit growth and improving market share [5] Summary by Sections Economic Dynamics - The "Seven Networks" plan establishes long-term infrastructure momentum, driving traditional and new infrastructure financial demand [5][18] - Shandong's economic structure is more traditional compared to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with a strong demand for green finance and technological upgrades [5][30] - The province's credit growth is expected to remain stable, with a 9.7% growth rate in Q1 2025, second only to Sichuan and Jiangsu among major provinces [5][15] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure loan growth in Shandong is projected to surpass that of Sichuan and Jiangsu by 2024, with significant investment targets set for 2025 [23][26] - The government aims for 3,900 key projects to be operational by 2025, exceeding the 2,600 projects planned for 2024 [26] Industry Transformation - Shandong is the only national-level pilot zone for new and old kinetic energy conversion, fostering both traditional upgrades and emerging economic demands [30][32] - The province's industrial structure is gradually optimizing, with traditional industries still dominant but new sectors gaining traction [5][30] Regional Banking Landscape - Qilu Bank and Qingdao Bank are highlighted for their robust credit growth and improving market share, with a focus on the manufacturing and retail sectors [6][11] - The asset quality of regional banks is stable, with a decreasing trend in non-performing loans [6][11]