煤炭行业6月月报：动力煤价止跌，旺季反弹在即-20250604

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a rebound, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with a 3.6% increase in May compared to a 1.8% increase in the index, resulting in a 1.7 percentage point outperformance [2] - Domestic coal supply is expected to decrease significantly by April 2025, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 18 million tons in national raw coal production, but a month-on-month decrease of about 51 million tons [2][17] - The overall demand for coal is expected to decline as April enters a demand off-season, with a slight increase in total coal consumption year-on-year [3][39] - High inventory levels at ports and key coal mines are observed, with power plant inventories showing a slight decrease [4][81] Supply - In April, domestic coal production decreased by 51 million tons month-on-month, while coal imports remained relatively low [2][25] - The total raw coal production from January to April 2024 reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [17] - The coal import volume in April was 37.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.4% [25][28] Demand - The overall coal demand is expected to decline, with April seeing a decrease in commodity coal consumption, although chemical coal demand remains strong [3][39] - In April, the total coal consumption was 390 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3] - The electricity consumption in April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slightly declined compared to March [42] Inventory - Port and key coal mine inventories remain high, with main ports maintaining elevated stock levels [4][81] - As of May 26, the total inventory at major ports was 76.97 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.42% [83] - The inventory of the six major power generation groups was slightly lower year-on-year, indicating a potential risk of self-ignition and heat value decline due to high temperatures [81] Price - As the peak season approaches, the price of thermal coal has stabilized, while coking coal prices are under downward pressure [4][5] - The market sentiment has improved towards the end of May, leading to a halt in the decline of coal prices [4] Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to focus on coal companies with stable performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [5] - Attention should also be given to growth-oriented companies like Electric Power Investment Energy, Jinko Coal Industry, and Huaibei Mining [5]