银行2025年中期策略：对银行而言，有时“慢就是快”

Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of pressure on the profit and loss statement and resilience in the balance sheet of banks in Q1 2025, with revenue and profit growth rates slightly declining compared to previous periods, indicating a low growth environment for the banking sector in 2023 [2][4] - The report emphasizes that understanding the long-term trends in credit policy is crucial for avoiding tail risks, as the direction of credit policy is expected to remain stable, benefiting state-owned enterprises and banks primarily serving government-related clients [2][18] - The report suggests that the valuation changes in the banking sector are driven more by fundamental economic conditions and the shift in funding sources from active public funds to passive long-term funds, which is expected to continue influencing bank stock prices positively [2][16] Industry Performance - In Q1 2025, the average revenue growth rate for 39 listed banks was -1.68%, with a decline in pre-provision profit growth of -2.11% and a net profit growth rate of -1.20%, reflecting seasonal pressures on performance [4][16] - The total asset growth rate for listed banks remained steady at 7.5% year-on-year, with state-owned banks experiencing a slight decline in growth due to high base effects, while smaller banks, particularly city commercial banks, accelerated their expansion [18][20] - The report indicates that the growth in net profit for listed banks in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by scale expansion and growth in middle-income, while net interest margins contracted and other non-interest income growth slowed, contributing to performance challenges [16][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific banks such as China Merchants Bank, state-owned banks, and Chengdu Bank, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing trends in the banking sector [2][18]