宝城期货有色日报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - Copper: The copper price fluctuated narrowly around 78,200 yuan, with an increase in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. After Trump announced an increase in steel and aluminum tariffs on May 30, the copper price did not rise significantly, possibly due to reduced market sensitivity. Post - holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly, pressuring the futures price and narrowing the monthly spread. In June, the macro environment is favorable for copper prices. Although demand is expected to decline after the peak season, domestic demand may exceed expectations due to macro - policy transmission and a 90 - day easing of Sino - US trade relations. The copper price is expected to be strong, with short - term attention on the May high [5]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with an increase in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, driving up non - ferrous metals. Post - holiday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly. On June 3, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 526,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last Thursday. Technically, the futures price rebounded after breaking below the 20,000 - yuan mark. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at the 20,000 - yuan mark [6]. - Nickel: The nickel price continued to rise with a reduction in positions, and the main futures price approached 123,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. Nickel had a large previous decline and now shows signs of a rebound from oversold conditions, with strong willingness among previous short - sellers to close positions. Technically, the short - term futures price rebounded from the bottom, and with the overall market warming up, the futures price is expected to remain strong [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On June 4, Cailian Press reported that Peru expects to produce 2.8 million tons of copper in 2025 [9]. - Aluminum: On June 3, Cailian Press reported that Goldman Sachs Group expects the aluminum price to drop to a low of $2,100 per ton in early 2026, which would halt over - investment in Indonesian smelting capacity. Analysts such as Eoin Dinsmore said that three 500,000 - ton smelters in Indonesia will be put into operation in mid - 2026, earlier than expected. The increase in production will result in a surplus supply of 1 million tons in 2026, the largest since 2020. Cost - price decline, weak alumina prices, and energy prices will put downward pressure on the aluminum price in 2026. In the future, the price will rise to the range of $2,150 - $2,550 per ton. The bank has lowered its price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 from $2,540 and $2,800 to $2,230 and $2,500 per ton respectively [10]. - Nickel: On June 4, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,500 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,580 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +450 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,530 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,680 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,180 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][41][37].