钢材、铁矿石日报：煤炭反弹提振，钢矿低位回升-20250604

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The fundamentals are stable, supply is stable, demand is running smoothly but has a seasonal weakening expectation, inventory is low, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a volatile manner, with a daily increase of 1.61%. Both supply and demand have recovered, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to weak and volatile operation due to tariff disturbances [3]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.37%. The supply - demand pattern has little change, with supply pressure remaining high and demand weak. The futures price is at a large discount, and the ore price will maintain a volatile operation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to April 2025, 5,679 urban old - fashioned residential areas across the country started renovation, with 6 regions having a start - up rate of over 50% [6]. - In April 2025, China's household air - conditioner exports reached 10.679 million units, a year - on - year increase of 14.5%, and sales reached $2.04 billion. Regional markets showed differentiation [7]. - In May 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production [8]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, and related products in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average are presented, as well as price differences such as coil - rebar spread and rebar - scrap spread [9]. 3. Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Increase or Decrease (%) | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,974 | 1.57 | 2,066,104 | 2,280,391 | | Hot - rolled Coil | 3,097 | 1.61 | 806,676 | 1,576,113 | | Iron Ore | 704.5 | 1.37 | 461,519 | 716,276 | [12] 4. Relevant Charts - Steel Inventory: Weekly and total inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are presented [14][15][17]. - Iron Ore Inventory: Inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mine iron ore powder are shown [19]. - Steel Mill Production Situation: Indicators such as the start - up rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills are presented [28]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Supply is slightly reduced but remains high, and demand is stable but will weaken seasonally. With low inventory, steel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [35]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Supply has returned to a relatively high level, and demand has improved but its sustainability is questionable. Steel prices are still prone to weak and volatile operation [36]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern has little change, with supply pressure high and demand weak. The futures price discount provides some support, and the ore price will maintain a volatile operation [37].