2025年6月流动性展望：资金与银行负债，谁影响谁？

Group 1: Liquidity Trends - In April, the excess reserve ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, remaining below historical levels[6] - The central bank's additional reduction in claims on other deposit-taking institutions in March and April led to a total decrease of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, contributing to the low excess reserves[6] - In May, the government deposit is expected to rise by approximately 130 billion yuan, which will reduce the consumption of excess reserves compared to previous years[24] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Following the rate cuts in May, the DR007 rate converged towards the policy rate, with the spread narrowing to within 20 basis points, returning to levels seen in Q4 of the previous year[39] - The average net lending from banks in May increased to 3.67 trillion yuan, up from 3.28 trillion yuan in April, indicating improved liquidity conditions[39] - The central bank is expected to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment in June, with the excess reserve ratio projected to rise to about 1.4%[24] Group 3: Fiscal Deficits and Government Bonds - The broad fiscal deficit in April reached 336.7 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 190 billion yuan, driven by high government fund expenditures[13] - In May, the net financing scale of government bonds increased by approximately 6.74 trillion yuan, reflecting significant government bond issuance pressures compared to previous years[26] - The government’s fiscal spending is anticipated to continue to support economic growth, with expected expenditures in May rising by 5.4% year-on-year to about 1.99 trillion yuan[31]