2025年6月大类资产配置展望：微澜蓄势，整装待发

Group 1 - The overall market trend is expected to show a fluctuating adjustment pattern in June, with limited short-term adjustment space but potentially prolonged volatility [4][60] - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a strong adjustment, while the Hong Kong stock market may perform better due to healthier chip structures, exhibiting wide fluctuations [4][60] - In early June, the dividend style is expected to outperform, while growth sectors may be relatively weak; however, from mid-June, growth styles may gain relative advantages [4][60] Group 2 - The US stock market is projected to continue its fluctuations, with risk trend models indicating high risk levels; factors such as international trade court rulings and Trump policies will influence market sentiment [4][61] - The gold market is expected to maintain a medium risk level, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation, and is likely to strengthen gradually, forming a reverse hedging relationship with US stocks [4][61] - The bond market is anticipated to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the interest rate center potentially rising due to short-term supply pressure, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [4][60] Group 3 - The fund allocation recommendation suggests a relatively balanced configuration, anticipating a fluctuating adjustment market, and advising to wait for the right timing [4][60] - The equity macro-micro monthly low-frequency timing model indicates a score of 0 for June, suggesting a strong adjustment pattern, with historical data showing high win rates at this score [31][30] - The model evaluates the market based on five dimensions: fundamentals, liquidity, international factors, valuation, and technical aspects, with a clear view of changes in each dimension [30][37]