利率专题：6月，债市关键词

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the bond market showed a narrow - range fluctuation with a differentiated market, including the differentiation between short - and long - term interest rates and that between interest rates and credit. In June, the bond market will continue the "oscillation" trend. The economic fundamentals are recovering in waves, and the loose capital situation supports the market, capping the interest rate increase. However, the phenomenon of certificate of deposit (CD) price hikes restricts the downward space of interest rates. The risk of a significant upward movement in the bond market is relatively controllable, and the trading opportunities brought by adjustments need to consider breaking through the downward space, mainly affected by CD price hikes and monetary policy trends [2][3]. - There are expected differences in economic data. Exports are more resilient than expected under tariff shocks, while the real estate market remains weak on both supply and demand sides despite policy support. The main economic contradiction is that external demand, although resilient, cannot fully offset the insufficient recovery of domestic demand. If domestic demand recovery is still weak or exports decline significantly due to tariff games, new counter - cyclical policies may be introduced [4]. - The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy stance remains unchanged. Considering that recent reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have been implemented, the probability of further loosening in the short term is relatively low. If the central bank further loosens its policy, it may catalyze the decline of long - term interest rates. It is worth noting whether the Lujiazui Forum in June will release important signals or introduce incremental policies. In June, the capital market is expected to experience greater fluctuations, and the capital interest rate center may rise compared to May, but the probability of a significant upward movement is low [4][70]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. 5 - month Bond Market: Low Volatility and Differentiated Market - Differentiated Performance: There was a differentiation between short - and long - term interest rates, with short - term interest rates declining slightly and long - term interest rates rising. The 10 - year Treasury yield exceeded 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield exceeded 1.9%. There was also a differentiation between interest rates and credit. Interest - rate bonds were weakly oscillating, while credit bonds were strong, narrowing the credit spread [2][12]. - Driving Factors: In early May, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts drove the short - term varieties, but the subsequent CD price hikes constrained the market. In mid - May, the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations improved economic growth expectations, and the expected increase in the supply of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds put pressure on long - and ultra - long - term interest rates [12]. - Performance of Different Bond Types: - Interest - rate Bonds: From May 6th to May 30th, the 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1BP to 1.46%, while the 5 - year, 10 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year Treasury yields increased by 4BP, 4BP, 7BP, and 7BP respectively [13]. - Credit Bonds: From May 6th to May 30th, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year medium - term notes (AAA) decreased by 8BP, 7BP, and 6BP respectively, and the credit spreads further narrowed [18]. - Certificates of Deposit: From May 6th to May 30th, the yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year CDs (AAA) decreased by 11BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively. The CD interest rate first decreased and then increased in May [23]. - Capital Situation in May: The capital situation was balanced and loose, with the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and continued over - renewal of MLF. The central bank's net MLF investment in May was 37.5 billion yuan. The credit investment in May was still weak, and the government bond issuance accelerated, but the overall supply pressure was controllable [27][38][41]. 2. How to Break the Oscillation of the Bond Market in June? 2.1 How Did the Bond Market Perform in June Historically? - Central Bank Operations and Capital Situation: In June, reverse repurchases were mostly net investments, and MLF was mostly renewed in full or in excess. The capital situation in June was generally stable and balanced, with the central bank increasing monetary investment to maintain liquidity stability and fiscal expenditures supplementing liquidity. The capital interest rate center tended to rise at the end of the month [45]. - Bond Market Performance: Historically, bond yields in June mostly showed a downward trend. In 2020 - 2022, bond interest rates rebounded due to economic improvement, monetary policy adjustments, and increased bond supply [54]. 2.2 What Else to Watch in the June Bond Market? - Expected Differences in Economic Data: - Exports: In April 2025, exports were more resilient than expected under tariff shocks. The acceleration of entrepot trade and the resilience of exports to the US were the driving factors [59]. - Real Estate: Despite policy support, the real estate market remained weak on both supply and demand sides. From January to April 2025, real estate development investment decreased year - on - year, and the real estate market showed a weak recovery pattern of "stable volume and falling prices" [61]. - Central Bank's Attitude and Capital Situation: - Central Bank's Attitude: The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy stance remains unchanged. The probability of further loosening in the short term is relatively low. If the central bank further loosens its policy, it may catalyze the decline of long - term interest rates. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the central bank restarting Treasury bond purchases unexpectedly and the signals from the Lujiazui Forum [67][68]. - Capital Situation: In June, the capital situation is expected to fluctuate more, and the capital interest rate center may rise compared to May. However, due to fiscal expenditure supplementation and the central bank's possible increased investment to stabilize the capital situation, the probability of a significant upward movement in interest rates is low. The supply pressure of government bonds, large - scale credit investment, peak CD maturities, and quarter - end capital repatriation will affect the capital situation [70].