资产配置日报：短债异动，重启买债了吗-20250604

Domestic Market Performance - The stock market continued its upward momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rising by 0.42%, 0.43%, and 0.28% respectively, while the technology sector's gains were in line with the overall market [2] - The bond market saw a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which fell by 0.5 basis points and 0.6 basis points to 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [2] - The commodity market showed positive performance, particularly in coal, which rebounded by 7.19% due to production cuts and expectations of supply constraints [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations slightly exceeded expectations, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity, with a net withdrawal of only 6 billion yuan [3] - The current market consensus suggests that the bond market risks are low, but a significant change would require the central bank to restart bond purchases [4] - The probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in June is estimated at 50%, influenced by the need to alleviate banks' liability pressures [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume reaching 1.18 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [5] - The market is currently in a range-bound trading pattern, with the Wande All A Index fluctuating within a 2% range since May 7 [5] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF has decreased from 18.21 at the end of April to 14.92, reflecting a lower expectation of future market volatility [5][7] Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks continue to perform well, with the CSI 2000 and Wande Micro Cap indices rising by 1.06% and 1.20% respectively, indicating strong interest in these segments [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are the main focus for capital allocation, with notable performances in areas such as AI and new consumption trends [6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.60% and 0.57%, with new consumption and biotechnology being the primary drivers [6]