摩根士丹利：亚洲宏观策略年中展望_受益于美元资产多元化

Investment Rating - The report projects AXJ FX to appreciate by approximately 3% over the next 12 months due to a weaker USD and increased FX hedging by Asia investors [11][12][18] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that AXJ currencies are expected to benefit from a diversification away from USD assets, with many Asian economies running current account surpluses [14][23] - Slowing growth and inflation, along with dovish monetary policies, are likely to support a rally in AXJ rates [42][46] - Specific currencies such as SGD, TWD, KRW, and MYR are highlighted as potential outperformers based on their USD asset holdings [11][30] Summary by Sections Currency Outlook - AXJ FX is projected to gain around 3% as the USD weakens, with exporters converting more USD proceeds into local currencies and investors increasing FX hedges [11][12][18] - The report forecasts an ~8% downside in DXY, indicating that while AXJ currencies will appreciate, gains may be moderated by slowing global trade [13] - The report identifies that the trend of increasing FX deposits in EM Asia economies supports the strengthening of AXJ currencies [24][25] Rate Strategy - The report suggests that AXJ rates are likely to rally due to slowing growth and inflation, with a dovish outlook for central bank policies [42][46] - India, Malaysia, and Thailand are highlighted as offering value in terms of rates, while Korea's case for a rate rally has weakened [46][47] - Specific trade ideas include long INR/IDR 3m NDF and short USD/KRW, reflecting the expected performance of these currencies [37][30] Trade Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining long positions in INR/IDR and 5-year IGBs FX-hedged, while suggesting a short position in USD/KRW [37][30][57] - It also advises on a 2s10s KTB steepener, indicating a bullish outlook for Thailand's rates [50][57] - The report notes that the upcoming fiscal policies and potential rate cuts in various countries could influence these trade positions positively [46][48]