Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Tunisian economy or specific sectors within it. Core Insights - The Tunisian economy grew by 1.4 percent in 2024, recovering from zero growth in 2023, but remains below pre-Covid levels, indicating a divergence from regional peers [18] - The current account deficit (CAD) decreased to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2024, down from 2.3 percent in 2023, easing some pressure on external financing needs [19] - Domestic financing of public debt has increased significantly, raising concerns about the sovereign-banking nexus and its potential impact on the credit market [21] - Inflation moderated to 5.6 percent in April 2025, aligning with pre-Covid averages, although food inflation remains higher at 7.3 percent [23] - The budget deficit decreased from 6.3 percent of GDP in 2023 to 5.8 percent in 2024, but tax revenues underperformed due to limited economic activity [24] - Future growth is projected at 1.9 percent in 2025, assuming improved rainfall and a recovery in the manufacturing sector, but risks remain elevated [25][26] - Improved port connectivity and trade facilitation could yield significant economic gains, potentially increasing GDP by 4-5 percent within 3-4 years [27][28] Recent Economic Developments - The economy's growth was driven by a partial recovery in agriculture and tourism, but hindered by challenges in oil, mining, and manufacturing sectors [18] - The trade deficit widened by 10.9 percent in 2024, remaining stable at 11.4 percent of GDP, with a significant deterioration in early 2025 [19] - Tunisia's reliance on domestic sources for external financing is increasing, with the Central Bank authorized to lend up to 7 billion dinars (4.1 percent of GDP) to the government in 2025 [20] - The share of domestic debt in total debt rose from 29.7 percent in 2019 to 53.8 percent in 2024, indicating a shift in financing dynamics [21] Inflation and Budgetary Pressure - Inflation has moderated, with food prices remaining a concern due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [23] - The budget continues to face pressure, with a decline in the wage bill and limited growth in public expenditures impacting overall fiscal health [24][36] Future Outlook - Moderate growth is expected in 2025-2027, with significant downside risks related to trade uncertainty and external financing conditions [25][26] - Enhancements in port infrastructure and trade facilitation are critical for leveraging Tunisia's strategic location and improving economic performance [27][28]
突尼斯经济监测，2025年春季
Shi Jie Yin Hang·2025-06-04 23:10