金信期货日刊-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise in coking coal futures on June 4, 2025, was triggered by rumors of Mongolia imposing a resource tax on coal exports and a technical rebound after 18 months of continuous decline. However, the sustainability of the upward trend is doubtful due to oversupply and weak demand [3][4]. - For stock index futures, with the thawing of the China - EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement, it may further stimulate negotiations between the US and China. The recommended operation strategy is high - selling and low - buying [7][8]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern. It is advisable to go long but not chase the rise, and instead buy on dips [11][12]. - Iron ore has a risk of overvaluation due to the weak reality of seasonal decline in molten iron production and the ongoing quarterly end shipment rush by mines. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market, and it is a strong variety in the black series. The outlook is oscillatory and bullish [15][16]. - Glass is expected to see a significant change only after the effects of real - estate stimulus policies are evident or major policies are introduced. Technically, it shows strong signs of a rebound from an oversold position, and the outlook is oscillatory and bullish [18][19]. - Urea is expected to continue its weak adjustment in the short term due to slow progress in agricultural demand and limited follow - up from downstream players, despite a relatively high daily output and operating rate [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Futures - Reasons for the sharp rise: Rumors of Mongolia's coal export tax increase and a technical rebound after 18 months of decline. On June 3, the position increased by 29,000 lots, and short - covering boosted the upward trend [3]. - Sustainability of the rise: Doubtful, as there is an oversupply (domestic coal mine output increased by 16 - 20% year - on - year, Mongolian imports reached a record high with 1,200 vehicles per day, and port inventory was 3.594 million tons) and weak demand (decline in steel mill molten iron production, coking enterprises' losses of 39 yuan per ton of coke) [4]. Stock Index Futures - Market situation: A - share indexes continued to close higher, with the CSI 1000 index performing well. The thawing of the China - EU Comprehensive Investment Agreement may further stimulate US - China negotiations [8]. - Operation strategy: High - selling and low - buying [7]. Gold - Market situation: After the holiday, the overseas market hit a new high, and Shanghai gold opened sharply higher and then adjusted. It is currently in an oscillatory pattern [12]. - Operation strategy: Go long but not chase the rise, and buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: The end - of - quarter shipment rush by mines is ongoing, and molten iron production is seasonally weak, increasing the risk of overvaluation. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market [16]. - Outlook: Oscillatory and bullish [15]. Glass - Market situation: There has been no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power [19]. - Outlook: Oscillatory and bullish, awaiting the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy introductions [18]. Urea - Supply situation: The domestic daily output is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23% [20]. - Demand situation: Agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited [20]. - Price outlook: Weak adjustment in the short term [20].