Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (9866 HK) [2][12] Core Views - The report highlights that sales recovery and cost reduction are expected to drive marginal improvements in Q2, presenting a short-term rebound opportunity for the stock [6][10] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's ability to improve margins and reduce losses, with management projecting stable monthly sales of 25,000 units for the NIO brand in Q4 [6][10] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for NIO Inc. are as follows: - 2023: 55,618 million RMB - 2024: 65,732 million RMB - 2025E: 84,681 million RMB - 2026E: 92,670 million RMB - 2027E: 95,526 million RMB - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are projected at 12.9% for 2023, 18.2% for 2024, and 28.8% for 2025 [5][10] - Net profit projections indicate continued losses, with estimates of (20,844) million RMB for 2023, (22,310) million RMB for 2024, and (15,325) million RMB for 2025 [5][10] - The report notes a significant drop in gross margin from 13.1% in Q4 2024 to 10.2% in Q1 2025, primarily due to declining vehicle prices and sales volume [6][10] Stock Performance - The current stock price is 27.50 HKD, with a target price of 48.96 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 78.0% [1][8] - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 20.98% [4]
蔚来汽车(9866 HK)：销量回升和降本推动或2季度边际改善，股价迎来短期反弹机会
BOCOM International·2025-06-05 00:15